The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Is Poor Performance a Result of Methodology or Data Quality?

• Published in: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Main Authors: Haughton, Ned, Abramowitz, Gab, Pitman, Andy, J, Or, Dani, Best, Martin, J, Johnson, Helen, R, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Boone, Aaron, Cuntz, Matthias, Decharme, Bertrand, Dirmeyer, Paul, A, Dong, Jairui, Ek, Michael, Guo, Zichang, Haverd, Vanessa, van den Hurk, Bart, J J, Nearing, Grey, S, Pak, Bernard, Santanello, Joe, A, Stevens, Lauren, E, Vuichard, Nicolas
• Other Authors: Department Computational Hydrosystems UFZ Leipzig, Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Australian Research CouncilCE110001028Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme CA01101United States Department of Energy (DOE)DE-FG02-04ER63917DE-FG02-04ER63911CFCAS Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) BIOCAP Environment and Climate Change Canada Natural Resources Canada European Commission FAO-GTOS-TCO iLEAPS Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry National Science Foundation (NSF) University of Tuscia Universite Laval United States Department of Energy (DOE)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2016
• Subjects: Atmosphere Coupling Experiment; Energy-balance Closure; Soil-moisture; Climate; Project; Co2; Impact; Glace; Phase; permafrost; climate change; land surface models; Arctic transport; winter roads; ice roads; Arctic accessibility; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Ecosystems; [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment; Arctic; Climate change; Ice
• Online Access: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02985166; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02985166/document; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02985166/file/G%C3%A4deke_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_024049.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0171.1

International audience The Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) illustrated the value of prescribing a priori performance targets in model intercomparisons. It showed that the performance of turbulent energy flux predictions from different land surface models, at a broad range of flux tower sites using common evaluation metrics, was on average worse than relatively simple empirical models. For sensible heat fluxes, all land surface models were outperformed by a linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. For latent heat flux, all land surface models were outperformed by a regression against downward shortwave radiation, surface air temperature, and relative humidity. These results are explored here in greater detail and possible causes are investigated. It is examined whether particular metrics or sites unduly influence the collated results, whether results change according to timescale aggregation, and whether a lack of energy conservation in flux tower data gives the empirical models an unfair advantage in the intercomparison. It is demonstrated that energy conservation in the observational data is not responsible for these results. It is also shown that the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes in LSMs, rather than the calculation of available energy, is the cause of the original findings. Finally, evidence is presented that suggests that the nature of this partitioning problem is likely shared among all contributing LSMs. While a single candidate explanation for why land surface models perform poorly relative to empirical benchmarks in PLUMBER could not be found, multiple possible explanations are excluded and guidance is provided on where future research should focus.