Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model
International audience Owing to increase in snowfall, the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance is expected to increase by the end of the current century. Assuming no associated response of ice dynamics, this will be a negative contribution to sea-level rise. However, the assessment of these chan...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2019
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02566536 https://hal.science/hal-02566536/document https://hal.science/hal-02566536/file/tc-13-3023-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 |
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English |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Beaumet, Julien Déqué, Michel Krinner, Gerhard Agosta, Cécile Alias, Antoinette Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience Owing to increase in snowfall, the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance is expected to increase by the end of the current century. Assuming no associated response of ice dynamics, this will be a negative contribution to sea-level rise. However, the assessment of these changes using dynam-ical downscaling of coupled climate model projections still bears considerable uncertainties due to poorly represented high-southern-latitude atmospheric circulation and sea surface conditions (SSCs), that is sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration. This study evaluates the Antarctic surface climate simulated using a global high-resolution atmospheric model and assesses the effects on the simulated Antarctic surface climate of two different SSC data sets obtained from two coupled climate model projections. The two coupled models from which SSCs are taken, MIROC-ESM and NorESM1-M, simulate future Antarctic sea ice trends at the opposite ends of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projection range. The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid configuration in order to achieve an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over the 1981-2010 period, ARPEGE is driven by the SSCs from MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M and CMIP5 historical runs and by observed SSCs. These three simulations are evaluated against the ERA-Interim reanaly-ses for atmospheric general circulation as well as the MAR regional climate model and in situ observations for surface climate. For the late 21st century, SSCs from the same coupled climate models forced by the RCP8.5 emission scenario are used both directly and bias-corrected with an anomaly method which consists in adding the future climate anomaly from coupled model projections to the observed SSCs with taking into account the quantile distribution of these anomalies. We evaluate the effects of driving the atmospheric model by the bias-corrected instead of the original SSCs. |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Beaumet, Julien Déqué, Michel Krinner, Gerhard Agosta, Cécile Alias, Antoinette |
author_facet |
Beaumet, Julien Déqué, Michel Krinner, Gerhard Agosta, Cécile Alias, Antoinette |
author_sort |
Beaumet, Julien |
title |
Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model |
title_short |
Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model |
title_full |
Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model |
title_fullStr |
Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model |
title_sort |
effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future antarctic surface climate simulated by the arpege atmosphere general circulation model |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02566536 https://hal.science/hal-02566536/document https://hal.science/hal-02566536/file/tc-13-3023-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-02566536 The Cryosphere, 2019, 13, pp.3023 - 3043. ⟨10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 hal-02566536 https://hal.science/hal-02566536 https://hal.science/hal-02566536/document https://hal.science/hal-02566536/file/tc-13-3023-2019.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
3023 |
op_container_end_page |
3043 |
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1801369324570542080 |
spelling |
ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-02566536v1 2024-06-09T07:40:55+00:00 Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model Beaumet, Julien Déqué, Michel Krinner, Gerhard Agosta, Cécile Alias, Antoinette Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) 2019 https://hal.science/hal-02566536 https://hal.science/hal-02566536/document https://hal.science/hal-02566536/file/tc-13-3023-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 hal-02566536 https://hal.science/hal-02566536 https://hal.science/hal-02566536/document https://hal.science/hal-02566536/file/tc-13-3023-2019.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-02566536 The Cryosphere, 2019, 13, pp.3023 - 3043. ⟨10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019 2024-05-16T15:01:46Z International audience Owing to increase in snowfall, the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance is expected to increase by the end of the current century. Assuming no associated response of ice dynamics, this will be a negative contribution to sea-level rise. However, the assessment of these changes using dynam-ical downscaling of coupled climate model projections still bears considerable uncertainties due to poorly represented high-southern-latitude atmospheric circulation and sea surface conditions (SSCs), that is sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration. This study evaluates the Antarctic surface climate simulated using a global high-resolution atmospheric model and assesses the effects on the simulated Antarctic surface climate of two different SSC data sets obtained from two coupled climate model projections. The two coupled models from which SSCs are taken, MIROC-ESM and NorESM1-M, simulate future Antarctic sea ice trends at the opposite ends of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projection range. The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid configuration in order to achieve an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over the 1981-2010 period, ARPEGE is driven by the SSCs from MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M and CMIP5 historical runs and by observed SSCs. These three simulations are evaluated against the ERA-Interim reanaly-ses for atmospheric general circulation as well as the MAR regional climate model and in situ observations for surface climate. For the late 21st century, SSCs from the same coupled climate models forced by the RCP8.5 emission scenario are used both directly and bias-corrected with an anomaly method which consists in adding the future climate anomaly from coupled model projections to the observed SSCs with taking into account the quantile distribution of these anomalies. We evaluate the effects of driving the atmospheric model by the bias-corrected instead of the original SSCs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice The Cryosphere HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Antarctic The Antarctic The Cryosphere 13 11 3023 3043 |