Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
International audience We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi‐model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble mean provides a more realist...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2020
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02559658 https://hal.science/hal-02559658/document https://hal.science/hal-02559658/file/SIMIP_2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749 |
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HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
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language |
English |
topic |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] Notz, Dirk Dörr, Jakob Bailey, David, H. Blockley, Ed Bushuk, Mitchell Debernard, Jens Boldingh Dekker, Evelien Derepentigny, Patricia Docquier, David Fučkar, Neven Fyfe, John Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika Hunke, Elizabeth Iovino, Doroteaciro Khosravi, Narges Madec, Gurvan Massonnet, François O'Farrell, Siobhan Petty, Alek Rana, Arun Roach, Lettie Rosenblum, Erica rousset, clement Semmler, Tido Stroeve, Julienne Toyoda, Takahiro Tremblay, Bruno Tsujino, Hiroyuki Vancoppenolle, Martin Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi‐model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area < 1 million km 2 ) in September for the first time before the year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 examined here. |
author2 |
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Computational Research Division LBNL Berkeley (CRD) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley (LBNL) Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research Louvain (TECLIM) Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Institute of Arctic Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder (INSTAAR) University of Colorado Boulder Oceanography Section Boulder National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Montréal McGill University = Université McGill Montréal, Canada Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Notz, Dirk Dörr, Jakob Bailey, David, H. Blockley, Ed Bushuk, Mitchell Debernard, Jens Boldingh Dekker, Evelien Derepentigny, Patricia Docquier, David Fučkar, Neven Fyfe, John Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika Hunke, Elizabeth Iovino, Doroteaciro Khosravi, Narges Madec, Gurvan Massonnet, François O'Farrell, Siobhan Petty, Alek Rana, Arun Roach, Lettie Rosenblum, Erica rousset, clement Semmler, Tido Stroeve, Julienne Toyoda, Takahiro Tremblay, Bruno Tsujino, Hiroyuki Vancoppenolle, Martin |
author_facet |
Notz, Dirk Dörr, Jakob Bailey, David, H. Blockley, Ed Bushuk, Mitchell Debernard, Jens Boldingh Dekker, Evelien Derepentigny, Patricia Docquier, David Fučkar, Neven Fyfe, John Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika Hunke, Elizabeth Iovino, Doroteaciro Khosravi, Narges Madec, Gurvan Massonnet, François O'Farrell, Siobhan Petty, Alek Rana, Arun Roach, Lettie Rosenblum, Erica rousset, clement Semmler, Tido Stroeve, Julienne Toyoda, Takahiro Tremblay, Bruno Tsujino, Hiroyuki Vancoppenolle, Martin |
author_sort |
Notz, Dirk |
title |
Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
arctic sea ice in cmip6 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02559658 https://hal.science/hal-02559658/document https://hal.science/hal-02559658/file/SIMIP_2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-02559658 Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (10), pp.e2019GL086749. ⟨10.1029/2019GL086749⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019GL086749 hal-02559658 https://hal.science/hal-02559658 https://hal.science/hal-02559658/document https://hal.science/hal-02559658/file/SIMIP_2020.pdf doi:10.1029/2019GL086749 WOS: 000560371700009 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
10 |
_version_ |
1799472175598534656 |
spelling |
ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-02559658v1 2024-05-19T07:34:10+00:00 Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 Notz, Dirk Dörr, Jakob Bailey, David, H. Blockley, Ed Bushuk, Mitchell Debernard, Jens Boldingh Dekker, Evelien Derepentigny, Patricia Docquier, David Fučkar, Neven Fyfe, John Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika Hunke, Elizabeth Iovino, Doroteaciro Khosravi, Narges Madec, Gurvan Massonnet, François O'Farrell, Siobhan Petty, Alek Rana, Arun Roach, Lettie Rosenblum, Erica rousset, clement Semmler, Tido Stroeve, Julienne Toyoda, Takahiro Tremblay, Bruno Tsujino, Hiroyuki Vancoppenolle, Martin Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Computational Research Division LBNL Berkeley (CRD) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley (LBNL) Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research Louvain (TECLIM) Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Institute of Arctic Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder (INSTAAR) University of Colorado Boulder Oceanography Section Boulder National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Montréal McGill University = Université McGill Montréal, Canada Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 2020-05-28 https://hal.science/hal-02559658 https://hal.science/hal-02559658/document https://hal.science/hal-02559658/file/SIMIP_2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019GL086749 hal-02559658 https://hal.science/hal-02559658 https://hal.science/hal-02559658/document https://hal.science/hal-02559658/file/SIMIP_2020.pdf doi:10.1029/2019GL086749 WOS: 000560371700009 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-02559658 Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (10), pp.e2019GL086749. ⟨10.1029/2019GL086749⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749 2024-04-25T01:47:03Z International audience We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi‐model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area < 1 million km 2 ) in September for the first time before the year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 examined here. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Geophysical Research Letters 47 10 |