Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
International audience The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation...
Published in: | Ambio |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2017
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01644575 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 |
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ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-01644575v1 |
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Open Polar |
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HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
op_collection_id |
ftceafr |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Polar shipping Sea ice Weather forecast [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Polar shipping Sea ice Weather forecast [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
topic_facet |
Climate change Polar shipping Sea ice Weather forecast [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. |
author2 |
Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association NASA (Grant NNX17AD27G) NSF (PLR-1416920, PLR-1602985) European Project: 265863,EC:FP7:TPT,FP7-OCEAN-2010,ACCESS(2011) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad |
author_facet |
Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad |
author_sort |
Gascard, Jean-Claude |
title |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_short |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_full |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_fullStr |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_sort |
future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the arctic: implications for arctic shipping |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01644575 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Northeast Passage Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Northeast Passage Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0044-7447 EISSN: 1654-7209 AMBIO: A Journal of Environment and Society https://hal.science/hal-01644575 AMBIO: A Journal of Environment and Society, 2017, 46 (S3), pp.355 - 367. ⟨10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5⟩ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/265863/EU/Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society/ACCESS hal-01644575 https://hal.science/hal-01644575 doi:10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC5673867 WOS: 000415142800003 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 |
container_title |
Ambio |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
S3 |
container_start_page |
355 |
op_container_end_page |
367 |
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1799471518706565120 |
spelling |
ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-01644575v1 2024-05-19T07:33:26+00:00 Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association NASA (Grant NNX17AD27G) NSF (PLR-1416920, PLR-1602985) European Project: 265863,EC:FP7:TPT,FP7-OCEAN-2010,ACCESS(2011) 2017-12 https://hal.science/hal-01644575 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/265863/EU/Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society/ACCESS hal-01644575 https://hal.science/hal-01644575 doi:10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC5673867 WOS: 000415142800003 ISSN: 0044-7447 EISSN: 1654-7209 AMBIO: A Journal of Environment and Society https://hal.science/hal-01644575 AMBIO: A Journal of Environment and Society, 2017, 46 (S3), pp.355 - 367. ⟨10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5⟩ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 Climate change Polar shipping Sea ice Weather forecast [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 2024-04-25T02:02:38Z International audience The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Northeast Passage Sea ice HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Ambio 46 S3 355 367 |