Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis
International audience It is of fundamental importance to evaluate the ability of climate models to capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and, in the context of a rapidly increasing greenhouse forcing, the robustness of the changes simulated in these patterns over time.Here we app...
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ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-01504478v2 2024-06-09T07:48:07+00:00 Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis Rodrigues, David Alvarez-Castro, M Carmen Messori, Gabriele Yiou, Pascal Robin, Yoann Faranda, Davide Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University Department of Meteorology Stockholm (MISU) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) London Mathematical Laboratory European Project: 338965,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-ADG,A2C2(2014) 2018 https://hal.science/hal-01504478 https://hal.science/hal-01504478v2/document https://hal.science/hal-01504478v2/file/article_attractor_dim_CMIP5_Rev3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/338965/EU/Atmospheric flow Analogues and Climate Change/A2C2 hal-01504478 https://hal.science/hal-01504478 https://hal.science/hal-01504478v2/document https://hal.science/hal-01504478v2/file/article_attractor_dim_CMIP5_Rev3.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-01504478 Journal of Climate, 2018, ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 2024-05-16T15:28:21Z International audience It is of fundamental importance to evaluate the ability of climate models to capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and, in the context of a rapidly increasing greenhouse forcing, the robustness of the changes simulated in these patterns over time.Here we approach this problem from an innovative point of view based on dynamical systems theory. We characterize the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in the CMIP5 historical simulations (1851 to 2000) in terms of two instantaneous metrics: local dimension of the attractor and stability of phase-space trajectories. We then use these metrics to compare the models to the 20CRv2c reanalysis over the same historical period. The comparison suggests that: i) most models capture to some degree the median attractor properties and models with finer grids generally perform better; ii) in most models the extremes in the dynamical systems metrics match large-scale patterns similar to those found in the reanalysis; iii) changes in the attractor properties observed for the ensemble-mean 20CRv2c reanalysis might be artifacts due inhomogeneities in the standard deviation of ensemble over time; iv) the long-term trends in local dimension observed among the 56 members of the 20-CR ensemble have the same sign as those observed in the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Journal of Climate 31 15 6097 6111 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
op_collection_id |
ftceafr |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD] |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD] Rodrigues, David Alvarez-Castro, M Carmen Messori, Gabriele Yiou, Pascal Robin, Yoann Faranda, Davide Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD] |
description |
International audience It is of fundamental importance to evaluate the ability of climate models to capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and, in the context of a rapidly increasing greenhouse forcing, the robustness of the changes simulated in these patterns over time.Here we approach this problem from an innovative point of view based on dynamical systems theory. We characterize the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in the CMIP5 historical simulations (1851 to 2000) in terms of two instantaneous metrics: local dimension of the attractor and stability of phase-space trajectories. We then use these metrics to compare the models to the 20CRv2c reanalysis over the same historical period. The comparison suggests that: i) most models capture to some degree the median attractor properties and models with finer grids generally perform better; ii) in most models the extremes in the dynamical systems metrics match large-scale patterns similar to those found in the reanalysis; iii) changes in the attractor properties observed for the ensemble-mean 20CRv2c reanalysis might be artifacts due inhomogeneities in the standard deviation of ensemble over time; iv) the long-term trends in local dimension observed among the 56 members of the 20-CR ensemble have the same sign as those observed in the CMIP5 multimodel mean. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University Department of Meteorology Stockholm (MISU) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) London Mathematical Laboratory European Project: 338965,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-ADG,A2C2(2014) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rodrigues, David Alvarez-Castro, M Carmen Messori, Gabriele Yiou, Pascal Robin, Yoann Faranda, Davide |
author_facet |
Rodrigues, David Alvarez-Castro, M Carmen Messori, Gabriele Yiou, Pascal Robin, Yoann Faranda, Davide |
author_sort |
Rodrigues, David |
title |
Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis |
title_short |
Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis |
title_full |
Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis |
title_fullStr |
Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis |
title_sort |
dynamical properties of the north atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in cmip5 models and the 20crv2c reanalysis |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01504478 https://hal.science/hal-01504478v2/document https://hal.science/hal-01504478v2/file/article_attractor_dim_CMIP5_Rev3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-01504478 Journal of Climate, 2018, ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/338965/EU/Atmospheric flow Analogues and Climate Change/A2C2 hal-01504478 https://hal.science/hal-01504478 https://hal.science/hal-01504478v2/document https://hal.science/hal-01504478v2/file/article_attractor_dim_CMIP5_Rev3.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
31 |
container_issue |
15 |
container_start_page |
6097 |
op_container_end_page |
6111 |
_version_ |
1801379702902882304 |