21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory
© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Recent observed shifts in Arctic tundra shrub cover have uncertain impacts on 21st century net ecosystem carbon exchanges. Here we applied a well-tested ecosystem model, ecosys, to examine the effects of North America Arctic tundra plant dynamic...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
eScholarship, University of California
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8w32g5v8 |
id |
ftcdlib:qt8w32g5v8 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcdlib:qt8w32g5v8 2023-05-15T14:25:53+02:00 21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory Mekonnen, ZA Riley, WJ Grant, RF 2018-05-01 application/pdf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8w32g5v8 english eng eScholarship, University of California qt8w32g5v8 http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8w32g5v8 public Mekonnen, ZA; Riley, WJ; & Grant, RF. (2018). 21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory. Environmental Research Letters, 13(5). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8w32g5v8 article 2018 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28 2018-09-28T22:53:01Z © 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Recent observed shifts in Arctic tundra shrub cover have uncertain impacts on 21st century net ecosystem carbon exchanges. Here we applied a well-tested ecosystem model, ecosys, to examine the effects of North America Arctic tundra plant dynamics on ecosystem carbon balances from 1980-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Tundra productivity was modeled to increase from enhanced carbon fixation and N mineralization under recent and future climates. Between 1982 and 2100 and averaged across the region, predicted increases in relative dominance of woody versus non-woody plants increased ecosystem annual net primary productivity by 244 g C m-2that offset concurrent increases in annual heterotrophic respiration (139 g C m-2), resulting in an increasing net carbon sink over the 21st century. However, smaller increases in seasonal carbon uptake during winter (1 g C m-2) and autumn (22 g C m-2) and greater increases in ecosystem respiration (winter (23 g C m-2) and autumn (47 g C m-2)) by 2100 versus 1982 resulted in larger carbon losses during these seasons that completely offset the gains in spring (13 g C m-2) and 25% of the gains in summer (140 g C m-2). Modeled soil temperatures were predicted to increase more slowly than air temperatures (∼0.6 °C for every 1 °C increase in air temperature over the 21st century). This slower soil versus air warming, and thus greater increases in CO2fixation versus soil respiration rates, also contributed to the tundra remaining a carbon sink through 2100. However, these higher gains versus losses of carbon may be a transient response and not sustainable under further soil warming beyond 2100. Our modeling analysis allows us to extend beyond results from short-term warming experiments, which cannot characterize effects associated with decadal-scale changes in plant communities. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Tundra University of California: eScholarship Arctic Environmental Research Letters 13 5 054029 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
English |
description |
© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Recent observed shifts in Arctic tundra shrub cover have uncertain impacts on 21st century net ecosystem carbon exchanges. Here we applied a well-tested ecosystem model, ecosys, to examine the effects of North America Arctic tundra plant dynamics on ecosystem carbon balances from 1980-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Tundra productivity was modeled to increase from enhanced carbon fixation and N mineralization under recent and future climates. Between 1982 and 2100 and averaged across the region, predicted increases in relative dominance of woody versus non-woody plants increased ecosystem annual net primary productivity by 244 g C m-2that offset concurrent increases in annual heterotrophic respiration (139 g C m-2), resulting in an increasing net carbon sink over the 21st century. However, smaller increases in seasonal carbon uptake during winter (1 g C m-2) and autumn (22 g C m-2) and greater increases in ecosystem respiration (winter (23 g C m-2) and autumn (47 g C m-2)) by 2100 versus 1982 resulted in larger carbon losses during these seasons that completely offset the gains in spring (13 g C m-2) and 25% of the gains in summer (140 g C m-2). Modeled soil temperatures were predicted to increase more slowly than air temperatures (∼0.6 °C for every 1 °C increase in air temperature over the 21st century). This slower soil versus air warming, and thus greater increases in CO2fixation versus soil respiration rates, also contributed to the tundra remaining a carbon sink through 2100. However, these higher gains versus losses of carbon may be a transient response and not sustainable under further soil warming beyond 2100. Our modeling analysis allows us to extend beyond results from short-term warming experiments, which cannot characterize effects associated with decadal-scale changes in plant communities. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mekonnen, ZA Riley, WJ Grant, RF |
spellingShingle |
Mekonnen, ZA Riley, WJ Grant, RF 21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory |
author_facet |
Mekonnen, ZA Riley, WJ Grant, RF |
author_sort |
Mekonnen, ZA |
title |
21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory |
title_short |
21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory |
title_full |
21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory |
title_fullStr |
21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory |
title_full_unstemmed |
21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory |
title_sort |
21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of north america arctic tundra under an rcp8.5 climate trajectory |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8w32g5v8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Tundra |
op_source |
Mekonnen, ZA; Riley, WJ; & Grant, RF. (2018). 21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory. Environmental Research Letters, 13(5). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8w32g5v8 |
op_relation |
qt8w32g5v8 http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8w32g5v8 |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054029 |
_version_ |
1766298375414611968 |