Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation
Different approaches to obtaining uncertainty estimates of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are explored. The resulting estimates are used to enhance the understanding of spatial variability of the NAO over different time periods. Among the parametric and nonparametric approaches investigated in...
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Language: | English |
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ftcdlib:qt8km281h4 2023-05-15T17:29:57+02:00 Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation Wang, YH Magnusdottir, G Stern, H Tian, X Yu, Y 1290 - 1301 2014-02-01 application/pdf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8km281h4 english eng eScholarship, University of California qt8km281h4 http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8km281h4 Attribution (CC BY): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ CC-BY Wang, YH; Magnusdottir, G; Stern, H; Tian, X; & Yu, Y. (2014). Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation. Journal of Climate, 27(3), 1290 - 1301. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00230.1. UC Irvine: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8km281h4 article 2014 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00230.1 2017-10-13T22:53:03Z Different approaches to obtaining uncertainty estimates of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are explored. The resulting estimates are used to enhance the understanding of spatial variability of the NAO over different time periods. Among the parametric and nonparametric approaches investigated in this study, the bootstrap is nonparametric and not confined to the assumption of normally distributed data. It gives physically plausible uncertainty estimates. The NAO uncertainty estimates depend on sample sizes with greater sampling variability as sample size is smaller. The NAO uncertainty varies with time but common features include that the most uncertain values are centered between the centers of action of theNAOand are asymmetric in the zonal direction (more uncertainty in the eastward direction or downstream). The bootstrap can also be used to provide direct measures of uncertainty regarding the location of the NAO action centers. The uncertainty of the location of the NAO action centers not only helps assess the shift in the NAO but also provides evidence of more than two action centers. The methods reported on here could in principle be applied to any EOF-derived climate pattern. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of California: eScholarship Journal of Climate 27 3 1290 1301 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
English |
description |
Different approaches to obtaining uncertainty estimates of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are explored. The resulting estimates are used to enhance the understanding of spatial variability of the NAO over different time periods. Among the parametric and nonparametric approaches investigated in this study, the bootstrap is nonparametric and not confined to the assumption of normally distributed data. It gives physically plausible uncertainty estimates. The NAO uncertainty estimates depend on sample sizes with greater sampling variability as sample size is smaller. The NAO uncertainty varies with time but common features include that the most uncertain values are centered between the centers of action of theNAOand are asymmetric in the zonal direction (more uncertainty in the eastward direction or downstream). The bootstrap can also be used to provide direct measures of uncertainty regarding the location of the NAO action centers. The uncertainty of the location of the NAO action centers not only helps assess the shift in the NAO but also provides evidence of more than two action centers. The methods reported on here could in principle be applied to any EOF-derived climate pattern. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, YH Magnusdottir, G Stern, H Tian, X Yu, Y |
spellingShingle |
Wang, YH Magnusdottir, G Stern, H Tian, X Yu, Y Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation |
author_facet |
Wang, YH Magnusdottir, G Stern, H Tian, X Yu, Y |
author_sort |
Wang, YH |
title |
Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation |
title_short |
Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation |
title_full |
Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation |
title_sort |
uncertainty estimates of the eof-derived north atlantic oscillation |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8km281h4 |
op_coverage |
1290 - 1301 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Wang, YH; Magnusdottir, G; Stern, H; Tian, X; & Yu, Y. (2014). Uncertainty estimates of the EOF-derived north atlantic oscillation. Journal of Climate, 27(3), 1290 - 1301. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00230.1. UC Irvine: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8km281h4 |
op_relation |
qt8km281h4 http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8km281h4 |
op_rights |
Attribution (CC BY): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00230.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1290 |
op_container_end_page |
1301 |
_version_ |
1766125195591942144 |