Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter
We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolv...
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Language: | English |
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ftcdlib:qt5wc6c415 2023-05-15T14:26:58+02:00 Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter Boé, Julien Hall, Alex Qu, Xin pp 637-645 2010-04-01 application/pdf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5wc6c415 english eng eScholarship, University of California http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5wc6c415 qt5wc6c415 public Boé, Julien; Hall, Alex; & Qu, Xin. (2010). Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter. Climatic Change: An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change, 99(3), pp 637-645. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9809-6. Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5wc6c415 Earth Sciences Meteorology/Climatology article 2010 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9809-6 2016-04-02T18:49:12Z We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic ice pack Sea ice University of California: eScholarship Arctic Climatic Change 99 3-4 637 645 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Meteorology/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Meteorology/Climatology Boé, Julien Hall, Alex Qu, Xin Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Meteorology/Climatology |
description |
We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boé, Julien Hall, Alex Qu, Xin |
author_facet |
Boé, Julien Hall, Alex Qu, Xin |
author_sort |
Boé, Julien |
title |
Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter |
title_short |
Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter |
title_full |
Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter |
title_fullStr |
Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter |
title_sort |
sources of spread in simulations of arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: a letter |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5wc6c415 |
op_coverage |
pp 637-645 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic ice pack Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic ice pack Sea ice |
op_source |
Boé, Julien; Hall, Alex; & Qu, Xin. (2010). Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century: A letter. Climatic Change: An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change, 99(3), pp 637-645. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9809-6. Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5wc6c415 |
op_relation |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5wc6c415 qt5wc6c415 |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9809-6 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
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99 |
container_issue |
3-4 |
container_start_page |
637 |
op_container_end_page |
645 |
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1766300513252409344 |