Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective
The relationship between winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined for the time period 1860–2300. This study uses model output to extend recently reported observational results to multi-century time scales. Nine ensemble members are used in two Global Climate Mo...
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Language: | English |
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ftcdlib:qt5dz5f38s 2023-05-15T15:14:41+02:00 Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective Strong, Courtenay Magnusdottir, Gudrun pp 515-525 2010-03-01 application/pdf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5dz5f38s english eng eScholarship, University of California http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5dz5f38s qt5dz5f38s public Strong, Courtenay; & Magnusdottir, Gudrun. (2010). Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective. Climate Dynamics: Observational, Theoretical and Computational Research on the Climate System, 34(4), pp 515-525. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0550-7. Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5dz5f38s Earth Sciences Oceanography Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy Sea ice North Atlantic Oscillation Annular mode Climate change Global warming article 2010 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0550-7 2016-04-02T18:48:42Z The relationship between winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined for the time period 1860–2300. This study uses model output to extend recently reported observational results to multi-century time scales. Nine ensemble members are used in two Global Climate Models with forcing evolving from pre-industrial conditions through the so-called A1B scenario in which carbon dioxide stabilizes at 720 ppm by 2100. Throughout, the NAO generates an east-west dipole pattern of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies with oppositely signed centers of action over the Labrador and Barents Seas. During the positive polarity of the NAO, SIC increases over the Labrador Sea due to wind-driven equatorward advection of ice, and SIC decreases over the Barents Sea due to wind-driven poleward transport of heat within the mixed layer of the ocean. Although this NAO-driven SIC variability pattern can always be detected, it accounts for a markedly varying fraction of the total sea ice variability depending on the strength of the forced sea ice extent trend. For the first half of the 20th century or 1990 control conditions, the NAO-driven SIC pattern accounts for almost a third of the total SIC variance. In the context of the long term winter sea ice retreat from 1860 to 2300, the NAO-driven SIC pattern is robustly observable, but accounts for only 2% of the total SIC variance. The NAO-driven SIC dipole retreats poleward with the retreating marginal ice zone, and its Barents Sea center of action weakens. Results presented here underscore the idea that the NAO’s influence on Arctic climate is robustly observable, but time dependent in its form and statistical importance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Global warming Labrador Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice University of California: eScholarship Arctic Barents Sea Climate Dynamics 34 4 515 525 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy Sea ice North Atlantic Oscillation Annular mode Climate change Global warming |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy Sea ice North Atlantic Oscillation Annular mode Climate change Global warming Strong, Courtenay Magnusdottir, Gudrun Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy Sea ice North Atlantic Oscillation Annular mode Climate change Global warming |
description |
The relationship between winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined for the time period 1860–2300. This study uses model output to extend recently reported observational results to multi-century time scales. Nine ensemble members are used in two Global Climate Models with forcing evolving from pre-industrial conditions through the so-called A1B scenario in which carbon dioxide stabilizes at 720 ppm by 2100. Throughout, the NAO generates an east-west dipole pattern of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies with oppositely signed centers of action over the Labrador and Barents Seas. During the positive polarity of the NAO, SIC increases over the Labrador Sea due to wind-driven equatorward advection of ice, and SIC decreases over the Barents Sea due to wind-driven poleward transport of heat within the mixed layer of the ocean. Although this NAO-driven SIC variability pattern can always be detected, it accounts for a markedly varying fraction of the total sea ice variability depending on the strength of the forced sea ice extent trend. For the first half of the 20th century or 1990 control conditions, the NAO-driven SIC pattern accounts for almost a third of the total SIC variance. In the context of the long term winter sea ice retreat from 1860 to 2300, the NAO-driven SIC pattern is robustly observable, but accounts for only 2% of the total SIC variance. The NAO-driven SIC dipole retreats poleward with the retreating marginal ice zone, and its Barents Sea center of action weakens. Results presented here underscore the idea that the NAO’s influence on Arctic climate is robustly observable, but time dependent in its form and statistical importance. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Strong, Courtenay Magnusdottir, Gudrun |
author_facet |
Strong, Courtenay Magnusdottir, Gudrun |
author_sort |
Strong, Courtenay |
title |
Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective |
title_short |
Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective |
title_full |
Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective |
title_fullStr |
Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective |
title_sort |
modeled winter sea ice variability and the north atlantic oscillation: a multi-century perspective |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5dz5f38s |
op_coverage |
pp 515-525 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Global warming Labrador Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Global warming Labrador Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Strong, Courtenay; & Magnusdottir, Gudrun. (2010). Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective. Climate Dynamics: Observational, Theoretical and Computational Research on the Climate System, 34(4), pp 515-525. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0550-7. Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5dz5f38s |
op_relation |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5dz5f38s qt5dz5f38s |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0550-7 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
515 |
op_container_end_page |
525 |
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1766345113089343488 |