Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
© 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented...
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ftcdlib:qt44w9b1wf 2023-05-15T17:56:23+02:00 Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change McGuire, AD Lawrence, DM Koven, C Clein, JS Burke, E Chen, G Jafarov, E MacDougall, AH Marchenko, S Nicolsky, D Peng, S Rinke, A Ciais, P Gouttevin, I Hayes, DJ Ji, D Krinner, G Moore, JC Romanovsky, V Schädel, C Schaefer, K Schuur, EAG Zhuang, Q 3882 - 3887 2018-01-01 application/pdf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/44w9b1wf english eng eScholarship, University of California qt44w9b1wf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/44w9b1wf public McGuire, AD; Lawrence, DM; Koven, C; Clein, JS; Burke, E; Chen, G; et al.(2018). Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(15), 3882 - 3887. doi:10.1073/pnas.1719903115. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/44w9b1wf article 2018 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 2018-11-16T23:52:16Z © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost University of California: eScholarship Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 15 3882 3887 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
English |
description |
© 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
McGuire, AD Lawrence, DM Koven, C Clein, JS Burke, E Chen, G Jafarov, E MacDougall, AH Marchenko, S Nicolsky, D Peng, S Rinke, A Ciais, P Gouttevin, I Hayes, DJ Ji, D Krinner, G Moore, JC Romanovsky, V Schädel, C Schaefer, K Schuur, EAG Zhuang, Q |
spellingShingle |
McGuire, AD Lawrence, DM Koven, C Clein, JS Burke, E Chen, G Jafarov, E MacDougall, AH Marchenko, S Nicolsky, D Peng, S Rinke, A Ciais, P Gouttevin, I Hayes, DJ Ji, D Krinner, G Moore, JC Romanovsky, V Schädel, C Schaefer, K Schuur, EAG Zhuang, Q Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
author_facet |
McGuire, AD Lawrence, DM Koven, C Clein, JS Burke, E Chen, G Jafarov, E MacDougall, AH Marchenko, S Nicolsky, D Peng, S Rinke, A Ciais, P Gouttevin, I Hayes, DJ Ji, D Krinner, G Moore, JC Romanovsky, V Schädel, C Schaefer, K Schuur, EAG Zhuang, Q |
author_sort |
McGuire, AD |
title |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_short |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_full |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_fullStr |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_sort |
dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/44w9b1wf |
op_coverage |
3882 - 3887 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
McGuire, AD; Lawrence, DM; Koven, C; Clein, JS; Burke, E; Chen, G; et al.(2018). Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(15), 3882 - 3887. doi:10.1073/pnas.1719903115. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/44w9b1wf |
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qt44w9b1wf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/44w9b1wf |
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public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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115 |
container_issue |
15 |
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3882 |
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3887 |
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1766164545292730368 |