Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850-2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations th...
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ftcdlib:qt3ww7v7s2 2023-05-15T17:29:44+02:00 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations Cheng, W Chiang, JCH Zhang, D 7187 - 7197 2013-09-23 application/pdf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3ww7v7s2 english eng eScholarship, University of California qt3ww7v7s2 http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3ww7v7s2 public Cheng, W; Chiang, JCH; & Zhang, D. (2013). Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations. Journal of Climate, 26(18), 7187 - 7197. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00496.1. UC Berkeley: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3ww7v7s2 article 2013 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00496.1 2018-07-13T22:53:36Z The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850-2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%-40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%-60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from 20.1 to 21.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century-1; 1Sv ≡ 106m3Ms-1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble- mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ;60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ;1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of California: eScholarship Journal of Climate 26 18 7187 7197 |
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Open Polar |
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University of California: eScholarship |
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language |
English |
description |
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850-2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%-40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%-60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from 20.1 to 21.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century-1; 1Sv ≡ 106m3Ms-1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble- mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ;60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ;1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cheng, W Chiang, JCH Zhang, D |
spellingShingle |
Cheng, W Chiang, JCH Zhang, D Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations |
author_facet |
Cheng, W Chiang, JCH Zhang, D |
author_sort |
Cheng, W |
title |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations |
title_short |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations |
title_full |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations |
title_fullStr |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations |
title_sort |
atlantic meridional overturning circulation (amoc) in cmip5 models: rcp and historical simulations |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3ww7v7s2 |
op_coverage |
7187 - 7197 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Cheng, W; Chiang, JCH; & Zhang, D. (2013). Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations. Journal of Climate, 26(18), 7187 - 7197. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00496.1. UC Berkeley: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3ww7v7s2 |
op_relation |
qt3ww7v7s2 http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3ww7v7s2 |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00496.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
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26 |
container_issue |
18 |
container_start_page |
7187 |
op_container_end_page |
7197 |
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1766124519392542720 |