Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses sug...
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ftcdlib:qt14v523qn 2023-05-15T16:27:27+02:00 Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate Liu, W Xie, S-P Liu, Z Zhu, J e1601666 2017-01-01 application/pdf http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/14v523qn english eng eScholarship, University of California qt14v523qn http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/14v523qn public Liu, W; Xie, S-P; Liu, Z; & Zhu, J. (2017). Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. SCIENCE ADVANCES, 3(1), e1601666. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601666. UC San Diego: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/14v523qn article 2017 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666 2017-10-13T22:55:15Z Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Iceland North Atlantic Sea ice University of California: eScholarship Greenland Science Advances 3 1 e1601666 |
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Open Polar |
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University of California: eScholarship |
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ftcdlib |
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English |
description |
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Liu, W Xie, S-P Liu, Z Zhu, J |
spellingShingle |
Liu, W Xie, S-P Liu, Z Zhu, J Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
author_facet |
Liu, W Xie, S-P Liu, Z Zhu, J |
author_sort |
Liu, W |
title |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_short |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_full |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_sort |
overlooked possibility of a collapsed atlantic meridional overturning circulation in warming climate |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/14v523qn |
op_coverage |
e1601666 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Iceland North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Greenland Iceland North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Liu, W; Xie, S-P; Liu, Z; & Zhu, J. (2017). Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. SCIENCE ADVANCES, 3(1), e1601666. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601666. UC San Diego: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/14v523qn |
op_relation |
qt14v523qn http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/14v523qn |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666 |
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Science Advances |
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3 |
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1 |
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e1601666 |
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1766016637225402368 |