Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks
Anthropogenic climate change is altering ecological and human systems globally, including in United States (US) national parks, which conserve unique biodiversity and resources. Yet, the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change across all the parks have been unknown. Here, in the first spati...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8g32w918 2023-11-12T04:13:39+01:00 Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks Gonzalez, Patrick Wang, Fuyao Notaro, Michael Vimont, Daniel J Williams, John W 104001 2018-01-01 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8g32w918 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt8g32w918 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8g32w918 CC-BY Environmental Research Letters, vol 13, iss 10 Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences Climate Action anthropogenic climate change biodiversity natural resource management protected areas Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2018 ftcdlib 2023-10-16T18:05:10Z Anthropogenic climate change is altering ecological and human systems globally, including in United States (US) national parks, which conserve unique biodiversity and resources. Yet, the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change across all the parks have been unknown. Here, in the first spatial analysis of historical and projected temperature and precipitation across all 417 US national parks, we show that climate change exposes the national park area more than the US as a whole. This occurs because extensive parts of the national park area are in the Arctic, at high elevations, or in the arid southwestern US. Between 1895 and 2010, mean annual temperature of the national park area increased 1.0 °C ± 0.2 °C century-1 (mean ± standard error), double the US rate. Temperature has increased most in Alaska and its extensive national parks. Annual precipitation of the national park area declined significantly on 12% of national park area, compared to 3% of the US. Higher temperatures due to climate change have coincided with low precipitation in the southwestern US, intensifying droughts in the region. Physical and ecological changes have been detected and attributed mainly to anthropogenic climate change in areas of significant temperature increases in US national parks. From 2000 to 2100, under the highest emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), park temperatures would increase 3 °C-9 °C, with climate velocities outpacing dispersal capabilities of many plant and animal species. Even under the scenario of reduced emissions (RCP2.6), temperature increases could exceed 2 °C for 58% of national park area, compared to 22% of the US. Nevertheless, greenhouse gas emissions reductions could reduce projected temperature increases in national parks by one-half to two-thirds. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Alaska University of California: eScholarship Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
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University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences Climate Action anthropogenic climate change biodiversity natural resource management protected areas Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences Climate Action anthropogenic climate change biodiversity natural resource management protected areas Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Gonzalez, Patrick Wang, Fuyao Notaro, Michael Vimont, Daniel J Williams, John W Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences Climate Action anthropogenic climate change biodiversity natural resource management protected areas Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Anthropogenic climate change is altering ecological and human systems globally, including in United States (US) national parks, which conserve unique biodiversity and resources. Yet, the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change across all the parks have been unknown. Here, in the first spatial analysis of historical and projected temperature and precipitation across all 417 US national parks, we show that climate change exposes the national park area more than the US as a whole. This occurs because extensive parts of the national park area are in the Arctic, at high elevations, or in the arid southwestern US. Between 1895 and 2010, mean annual temperature of the national park area increased 1.0 °C ± 0.2 °C century-1 (mean ± standard error), double the US rate. Temperature has increased most in Alaska and its extensive national parks. Annual precipitation of the national park area declined significantly on 12% of national park area, compared to 3% of the US. Higher temperatures due to climate change have coincided with low precipitation in the southwestern US, intensifying droughts in the region. Physical and ecological changes have been detected and attributed mainly to anthropogenic climate change in areas of significant temperature increases in US national parks. From 2000 to 2100, under the highest emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), park temperatures would increase 3 °C-9 °C, with climate velocities outpacing dispersal capabilities of many plant and animal species. Even under the scenario of reduced emissions (RCP2.6), temperature increases could exceed 2 °C for 58% of national park area, compared to 22% of the US. Nevertheless, greenhouse gas emissions reductions could reduce projected temperature increases in national parks by one-half to two-thirds. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gonzalez, Patrick Wang, Fuyao Notaro, Michael Vimont, Daniel J Williams, John W |
author_facet |
Gonzalez, Patrick Wang, Fuyao Notaro, Michael Vimont, Daniel J Williams, John W |
author_sort |
Gonzalez, Patrick |
title |
Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks |
title_short |
Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks |
title_full |
Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks |
title_fullStr |
Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks |
title_full_unstemmed |
Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks |
title_sort |
disproportionate magnitude of climate change in united states national parks |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8g32w918 |
op_coverage |
104001 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Alaska |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, vol 13, iss 10 |
op_relation |
qt8g32w918 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8g32w918 |
op_rights |
CC-BY |
_version_ |
1782331550898061312 |