Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbræ's Present and Future Mass Loss
Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make projections of future sea level rise contributions of outlet glaciers challenging. Here we introduce a novel technique for weighing large ensemble model simulations that uses information of key observables. The approach is robus...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt81q6q6g7 2023-06-11T04:13:20+02:00 Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbræ's Present and Future Mass Loss Bondzio, Johannes H Morlighem, Mathieu Seroussi, Hélène Wood, Michael H Mouginot, Jérémie 12 - 921 2018-12-16 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/81q6q6g7 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt81q6q6g7 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/81q6q6g7 public Geophysical Research Letters, vol 45, iss 23 Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2018 ftcdlib 2023-05-29T17:59:55Z Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make projections of future sea level rise contributions of outlet glaciers challenging. Here we introduce a novel technique for weighing large ensemble model simulations that uses information of key observables. The approach is robust to input errors and yields calibrated means and error estimates of a glacier's mass balance. We apply the technique to Jakobshavn Isbræ, using a model that includes a dynamic calving law, and closely reproduce the observed behavior from 1985 to 2018 by forcing the model with ocean temperatures only. Our calibrated projection suggests that the glacier will continue to retreat and contribute about 5.1mm to eustatic sea level rise by 2100 under present-day climatic forcing. Our analysis shows that the glacier's future evolution will strongly depend on the ambient oceanic setting. Article in Journal/Newspaper Jakobshavn Jakobshavn isbræ University of California: eScholarship Jakobshavn Isbræ ENVELOPE(-49.917,-49.917,69.167,69.167) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Bondzio, Johannes H Morlighem, Mathieu Seroussi, Hélène Wood, Michael H Mouginot, Jérémie Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbræ's Present and Future Mass Loss |
topic_facet |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make projections of future sea level rise contributions of outlet glaciers challenging. Here we introduce a novel technique for weighing large ensemble model simulations that uses information of key observables. The approach is robust to input errors and yields calibrated means and error estimates of a glacier's mass balance. We apply the technique to Jakobshavn Isbræ, using a model that includes a dynamic calving law, and closely reproduce the observed behavior from 1985 to 2018 by forcing the model with ocean temperatures only. Our calibrated projection suggests that the glacier will continue to retreat and contribute about 5.1mm to eustatic sea level rise by 2100 under present-day climatic forcing. Our analysis shows that the glacier's future evolution will strongly depend on the ambient oceanic setting. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bondzio, Johannes H Morlighem, Mathieu Seroussi, Hélène Wood, Michael H Mouginot, Jérémie |
author_facet |
Bondzio, Johannes H Morlighem, Mathieu Seroussi, Hélène Wood, Michael H Mouginot, Jérémie |
author_sort |
Bondzio, Johannes H |
title |
Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbræ's Present and Future Mass Loss |
title_short |
Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbræ's Present and Future Mass Loss |
title_full |
Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbræ's Present and Future Mass Loss |
title_fullStr |
Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbræ's Present and Future Mass Loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbræ's Present and Future Mass Loss |
title_sort |
control of ocean temperature on jakobshavn isbræ's present and future mass loss |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/81q6q6g7 |
op_coverage |
12 - 921 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-49.917,-49.917,69.167,69.167) |
geographic |
Jakobshavn Isbræ |
geographic_facet |
Jakobshavn Isbræ |
genre |
Jakobshavn Jakobshavn isbræ |
genre_facet |
Jakobshavn Jakobshavn isbræ |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, vol 45, iss 23 |
op_relation |
qt81q6q6g7 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/81q6q6g7 |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1768390252922142720 |