Tropical mountain ice core δ18O: A Goldilocks indicator for global temperature change.

• Main Authors: Liu, Zhengyu, Bao, Yuntao, Thompson, Lonnie, Mosley-Thompson, Ellen, Tabor, Clay, Zhang, Guang, Yan, Mi, Lofverstrom, Marcus, Montanez, Isabel, Oster, Jessica
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: eScholarship, University of California 2023
• Subjects: ice core
• Online Access: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7xz3v8qg

Very high tropical alpine ice cores provide a distinct paleoclimate record for climate changes in the middle and upper troposphere. However, the climatic interpretation of a key proxy, the stable water oxygen isotopic ratio in ice cores (δ18Oice), remains an outstanding problem. Here, combining proxy records with climate models, modern satellite measurements, and radiative-convective equilibrium theory, we show that the tropical δ18Oice is an indicator of the temperature of the middle and upper troposphere, with a glacial cooling of -7.35° ± 1.1°C (66% CI). Moreover, it severs as a Goldilocks-type indicator of global mean surface temperature change, providing the first estimate of glacial stage cooling that is independent of marine proxies as -5.9° ± 1.2°C.Combined with all estimations available gives the maximum likelihood estimate of glacial cooling as -5.85° ± 0.51°C.