A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback
We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify t...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7t14r7vv 2024-01-07T09:45:55+01:00 A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback Koven, CD Schuur, EAG Schädel, C Bohn, TJ Burke, EJ Chen, G Chen, X Ciais, P Grosse, G Harden, JW Hayes, DJ Hugelius, G Jafarov, EE Krinner, G Kuhry, P Lawrence, DM MacDougall, AH Marchenko, SS McGuire, AD Natali, SM Nicolsky, DJ Olefeldt, D Peng, S Romanovsky, VE Schaefer, KM Strauss, J Treat, CC Turetsky, M 20140423 2015-11-13 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7t14r7vv unknown eScholarship, University of California qt7t14r7vv https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7t14r7vv public Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol 373, iss 2054 Agricultural Veterinary and Food Sciences Biological Sciences Forestry Sciences Climate Action Carbon Climate Change Computer Simulation Databases Factual Ecosystem Environmental Monitoring Feedback Freezing Models Chemical Statistical Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks methane carbon–climate feedbacks General Science & Technology article 2015 ftcdlib 2023-12-11T19:05:32Z We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C(-1) on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost University of California: eScholarship |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Agricultural Veterinary and Food Sciences Biological Sciences Forestry Sciences Climate Action Carbon Climate Change Computer Simulation Databases Factual Ecosystem Environmental Monitoring Feedback Freezing Models Chemical Statistical Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks methane carbon–climate feedbacks General Science & Technology |
spellingShingle |
Agricultural Veterinary and Food Sciences Biological Sciences Forestry Sciences Climate Action Carbon Climate Change Computer Simulation Databases Factual Ecosystem Environmental Monitoring Feedback Freezing Models Chemical Statistical Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks methane carbon–climate feedbacks General Science & Technology Koven, CD Schuur, EAG Schädel, C Bohn, TJ Burke, EJ Chen, G Chen, X Ciais, P Grosse, G Harden, JW Hayes, DJ Hugelius, G Jafarov, EE Krinner, G Kuhry, P Lawrence, DM MacDougall, AH Marchenko, SS McGuire, AD Natali, SM Nicolsky, DJ Olefeldt, D Peng, S Romanovsky, VE Schaefer, KM Strauss, J Treat, CC Turetsky, M A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback |
topic_facet |
Agricultural Veterinary and Food Sciences Biological Sciences Forestry Sciences Climate Action Carbon Climate Change Computer Simulation Databases Factual Ecosystem Environmental Monitoring Feedback Freezing Models Chemical Statistical Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks methane carbon–climate feedbacks General Science & Technology |
description |
We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C(-1) on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koven, CD Schuur, EAG Schädel, C Bohn, TJ Burke, EJ Chen, G Chen, X Ciais, P Grosse, G Harden, JW Hayes, DJ Hugelius, G Jafarov, EE Krinner, G Kuhry, P Lawrence, DM MacDougall, AH Marchenko, SS McGuire, AD Natali, SM Nicolsky, DJ Olefeldt, D Peng, S Romanovsky, VE Schaefer, KM Strauss, J Treat, CC Turetsky, M |
author_facet |
Koven, CD Schuur, EAG Schädel, C Bohn, TJ Burke, EJ Chen, G Chen, X Ciais, P Grosse, G Harden, JW Hayes, DJ Hugelius, G Jafarov, EE Krinner, G Kuhry, P Lawrence, DM MacDougall, AH Marchenko, SS McGuire, AD Natali, SM Nicolsky, DJ Olefeldt, D Peng, S Romanovsky, VE Schaefer, KM Strauss, J Treat, CC Turetsky, M |
author_sort |
Koven, CD |
title |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback |
title_short |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback |
title_full |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback |
title_fullStr |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback |
title_full_unstemmed |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback |
title_sort |
simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbonclimate feedback |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7t14r7vv |
op_coverage |
20140423 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol 373, iss 2054 |
op_relation |
qt7t14r7vv https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7t14r7vv |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1787427561648685056 |