Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model
North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inac...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7ks5554f 2023-06-11T04:14:40+02:00 Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Sena, Ana CT Patricola, Christina M Loring, Burlen 2022-11-16 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7ks5554f unknown eScholarship, University of California qt7ks5554f https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7ks5554f public Geophysical Research Letters, vol 49, iss 21 Climate Action tropical cyclones climate change tropical meteorology extreme events Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2022 ftcdlib 2023-05-29T17:59:16Z North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons may change in the future using the high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere-only simulations forced by sea-surface temperature patterns characteristic of La Niña and the positive AMM jointly, and El Niño and the negative AMM jointly, in historical and future climates. Projected Atlantic TCs become more frequent in the future by approximately 34% during El Niño and negative AMM and by 66% during La Niña and positive AMM, with a significant increase in the portion of intense TCs. Warmer SSTs increase TC potential intensity, with reduced wind shear and increased mid-tropospheric humidity further supporting TC activity. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of California: eScholarship |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action tropical cyclones climate change tropical meteorology extreme events Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Climate Action tropical cyclones climate change tropical meteorology extreme events Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Sena, Ana CT Patricola, Christina M Loring, Burlen Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
topic_facet |
Climate Action tropical cyclones climate change tropical meteorology extreme events Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons may change in the future using the high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere-only simulations forced by sea-surface temperature patterns characteristic of La Niña and the positive AMM jointly, and El Niño and the negative AMM jointly, in historical and future climates. Projected Atlantic TCs become more frequent in the future by approximately 34% during El Niño and negative AMM and by 66% during La Niña and positive AMM, with a significant increase in the portion of intense TCs. Warmer SSTs increase TC potential intensity, with reduced wind shear and increased mid-tropospheric humidity further supporting TC activity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sena, Ana CT Patricola, Christina M Loring, Burlen |
author_facet |
Sena, Ana CT Patricola, Christina M Loring, Burlen |
author_sort |
Sena, Ana CT |
title |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_short |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_full |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_fullStr |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_sort |
future changes in active and inactive atlantic hurricane seasons in the energy exascale earth system model |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7ks5554f |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, vol 49, iss 21 |
op_relation |
qt7ks5554f https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7ks5554f |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1768392840185905152 |