A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset.
Knowledge of the onset duration of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum-the largest known greenhouse-gas-driven global warming event of the Cenozoic-is central to drawing inferences for future climate change. Single-foraminifera measurements of the associated carbon isotope excursion from Maud Rise...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7kc5n9zn 2023-05-15T18:21:09+02:00 A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset. Kirtland Turner, Sandra Hull, Pincelli M Kump, Lee R Ridgwell, Andy 353 2017-08-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kc5n9zn unknown eScholarship, University of California qt7kc5n9zn https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kc5n9zn public Nature communications, vol 8, iss 1 Climate Action article 2017 ftcdlib 2023-02-06T18:41:05Z Knowledge of the onset duration of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum-the largest known greenhouse-gas-driven global warming event of the Cenozoic-is central to drawing inferences for future climate change. Single-foraminifera measurements of the associated carbon isotope excursion from Maud Rise (South Atlantic Ocean) are controversial, as they seem to indicate geologically instantaneous carbon release and anomalously long ocean mixing. Here, we fundamentally reinterpret this record and extract the likely PETM onset duration. First, we employ an Earth system model to illustrate how the response of ocean circulation to warming does not support the interpretation of instantaneous carbon release. Instead, we use a novel sediment-mixing model to show how changes in the relative population sizes of calcareous plankton, combined with sediment mixing, can explain the observations. Furthermore, for any plausible PETM onset duration and sampling methodology, we place a probability on not sampling an intermediate, syn-excursion isotopic value. Assuming mixed-layer carbonate production continued at Maud Rise, we deduce the PETM onset was likely <5 kyr.Single-foraminifera measurements of the PETM carbon isotope excursion from Maud Rise have been interpreted as indicating geologically instantaneous carbon release. Here, the authors explain these records using an Earth system model and a sediment-mixing model and extract the likely PETM onset duration. Article in Journal/Newspaper South Atlantic Ocean University of California: eScholarship Maud Rise ENVELOPE(3.000,3.000,-66.000,-66.000) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
Climate Action Kirtland Turner, Sandra Hull, Pincelli M Kump, Lee R Ridgwell, Andy A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset. |
topic_facet |
Climate Action |
description |
Knowledge of the onset duration of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum-the largest known greenhouse-gas-driven global warming event of the Cenozoic-is central to drawing inferences for future climate change. Single-foraminifera measurements of the associated carbon isotope excursion from Maud Rise (South Atlantic Ocean) are controversial, as they seem to indicate geologically instantaneous carbon release and anomalously long ocean mixing. Here, we fundamentally reinterpret this record and extract the likely PETM onset duration. First, we employ an Earth system model to illustrate how the response of ocean circulation to warming does not support the interpretation of instantaneous carbon release. Instead, we use a novel sediment-mixing model to show how changes in the relative population sizes of calcareous plankton, combined with sediment mixing, can explain the observations. Furthermore, for any plausible PETM onset duration and sampling methodology, we place a probability on not sampling an intermediate, syn-excursion isotopic value. Assuming mixed-layer carbonate production continued at Maud Rise, we deduce the PETM onset was likely <5 kyr.Single-foraminifera measurements of the PETM carbon isotope excursion from Maud Rise have been interpreted as indicating geologically instantaneous carbon release. Here, the authors explain these records using an Earth system model and a sediment-mixing model and extract the likely PETM onset duration. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kirtland Turner, Sandra Hull, Pincelli M Kump, Lee R Ridgwell, Andy |
author_facet |
Kirtland Turner, Sandra Hull, Pincelli M Kump, Lee R Ridgwell, Andy |
author_sort |
Kirtland Turner, Sandra |
title |
A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset. |
title_short |
A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset. |
title_full |
A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset. |
title_fullStr |
A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset. |
title_full_unstemmed |
A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset. |
title_sort |
probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of petm onset. |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kc5n9zn |
op_coverage |
353 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(3.000,3.000,-66.000,-66.000) |
geographic |
Maud Rise |
geographic_facet |
Maud Rise |
genre |
South Atlantic Ocean |
genre_facet |
South Atlantic Ocean |
op_source |
Nature communications, vol 8, iss 1 |
op_relation |
qt7kc5n9zn https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kc5n9zn |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1766200261178556416 |