Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions
Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6tz960ng 2024-06-23T07:50:17+00:00 Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions Peings, Y Davini, P Magnusdottir, G 2023-03-27 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6tz960ng unknown eScholarship, University of California qt6tz960ng https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6tz960ng public Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol 128, iss 6 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Oceanography Atmospheric Sciences Earth Sciences Climate Action Ural blocking S2S forecasting stratosphere-troposphere coupling Arctic-midlatitude linkages North Atlantic Oscillation Climate change science article 2023 ftcdlib 2024-05-29T00:45:35Z Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2-week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents-Kara (BK) sea-ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea-ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea-ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice University of California: eScholarship Arctic Kara Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Oceanography Atmospheric Sciences Earth Sciences Climate Action Ural blocking S2S forecasting stratosphere-troposphere coupling Arctic-midlatitude linkages North Atlantic Oscillation Climate change science |
spellingShingle |
Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Oceanography Atmospheric Sciences Earth Sciences Climate Action Ural blocking S2S forecasting stratosphere-troposphere coupling Arctic-midlatitude linkages North Atlantic Oscillation Climate change science Peings, Y Davini, P Magnusdottir, G Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions |
topic_facet |
Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Oceanography Atmospheric Sciences Earth Sciences Climate Action Ural blocking S2S forecasting stratosphere-troposphere coupling Arctic-midlatitude linkages North Atlantic Oscillation Climate change science |
description |
Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2-week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents-Kara (BK) sea-ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea-ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea-ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Peings, Y Davini, P Magnusdottir, G |
author_facet |
Peings, Y Davini, P Magnusdottir, G |
author_sort |
Peings, Y |
title |
Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions |
title_short |
Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions |
title_full |
Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions |
title_fullStr |
Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions |
title_sort |
impact of ural blocking on early winter climate variability under different barents‐kara sea ice conditions |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6tz960ng |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol 128, iss 6 |
op_relation |
qt6tz960ng https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6tz960ng |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1802641146012237824 |