Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation
It is almost universally assumed in statistical hydroclimatology that relationships between large-scale climate indices and local-scale hydrometeorological responses, though possibly nonlinear, are monotonic. However, recent work suggests that northern-hemisphere atmospheric teleconnections to El Ni...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
eScholarship, University of California
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kn3014d https://escholarship.org/content/qt6kn3014d/qt6kn3014d.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104007 |
id |
ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6kn3014d |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6kn3014d 2024-09-09T19:21:36+00:00 Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation Fleming, SW Dahlke, HE 104007 2014-10-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kn3014d https://escholarship.org/content/qt6kn3014d/qt6kn3014d.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104007 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt6kn3014d https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kn3014d https://escholarship.org/content/qt6kn3014d/qt6kn3014d.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104007 public Environmental Research Letters, vol 9, iss 10 streamflow climate indices nonlinear ENSO Arctic Oscillation teleconnection Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2014 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104007 2024-06-28T06:28:19Z It is almost universally assumed in statistical hydroclimatology that relationships between large-scale climate indices and local-scale hydrometeorological responses, though possibly nonlinear, are monotonic. However, recent work suggests that northern-hemisphere atmospheric teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation can be parabolic. The effect has recently been explicitly confirmed in hydrologic responses, though associations are complicated by land surface characteristics and processes, and investigation of water resource implications has been limited to date. Here, we apply an Akaike Information Criterion-based polynomial selection approach to investigate annual flow volume teleconnections for 42 of the northern hemisphere's largest ocean-reaching rivers. Though we find a rich diversity of responses, parabolic relationships are formally consistent with the data for almost half the rivers, and the optimal model for eight. These highly nonlinear water supply teleconnections could radically alter the standard conceptual model of how water resources respond to climatic variability. For example, the Sacramento river in drought-ridden California exhibits no significant monotonic ENSO teleconnection but a 0.92 probability of a quadratic relationship, reducing mean predictive error by up to 65% and suggesting greater opportunity for climate index-based water supply forecasts than previously appreciated. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic University of California: eScholarship Arctic Environmental Research Letters 9 10 104007 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
streamflow climate indices nonlinear ENSO Arctic Oscillation teleconnection Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
streamflow climate indices nonlinear ENSO Arctic Oscillation teleconnection Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Fleming, SW Dahlke, HE Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation |
topic_facet |
streamflow climate indices nonlinear ENSO Arctic Oscillation teleconnection Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
It is almost universally assumed in statistical hydroclimatology that relationships between large-scale climate indices and local-scale hydrometeorological responses, though possibly nonlinear, are monotonic. However, recent work suggests that northern-hemisphere atmospheric teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation can be parabolic. The effect has recently been explicitly confirmed in hydrologic responses, though associations are complicated by land surface characteristics and processes, and investigation of water resource implications has been limited to date. Here, we apply an Akaike Information Criterion-based polynomial selection approach to investigate annual flow volume teleconnections for 42 of the northern hemisphere's largest ocean-reaching rivers. Though we find a rich diversity of responses, parabolic relationships are formally consistent with the data for almost half the rivers, and the optimal model for eight. These highly nonlinear water supply teleconnections could radically alter the standard conceptual model of how water resources respond to climatic variability. For example, the Sacramento river in drought-ridden California exhibits no significant monotonic ENSO teleconnection but a 0.92 probability of a quadratic relationship, reducing mean predictive error by up to 65% and suggesting greater opportunity for climate index-based water supply forecasts than previously appreciated. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fleming, SW Dahlke, HE |
author_facet |
Fleming, SW Dahlke, HE |
author_sort |
Fleming, SW |
title |
Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_short |
Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_full |
Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_sort |
parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to el niño-southern oscillation and the arctic oscillation |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kn3014d https://escholarship.org/content/qt6kn3014d/qt6kn3014d.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104007 |
op_coverage |
104007 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, vol 9, iss 10 |
op_relation |
qt6kn3014d https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kn3014d https://escholarship.org/content/qt6kn3014d/qt6kn3014d.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104007 |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104007 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104007 |
_version_ |
1809761844373487616 |