Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200
The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response...
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Online Access: | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/content/qt5zh738nb/qt5zh738nb.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j139 |
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5zh738nb 2024-09-15T17:43:50+00:00 Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 Barrand, Nicholas E Hindmarsh, Richard CA Arthern, Robert J Williams, C Rosie Mouginot, Jérémie Scheuchl, Bernd Rignot, Eric Ligtenberg, Stefan RM Van Den Broeke, Michiel R Edwards, Tamsin L Cook, Alison J Simonsen, Sebastian B 397 - 409 2013-01-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/content/qt5zh738nb/qt5zh738nb.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j139 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/content/qt5zh738nb/qt5zh738nb.pdf doi:10.3189/2013jog12j139 public Journal of Glaciology, vol 59, iss 215 Climate Action Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2013 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j139 2024-06-28T06:28:20Z The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response using a linearized method. Volume change estimates of the APIS resulting from surface massbalance anomalies calculated by the regional model RACMO2, forced by A1B and E1 scenarios of the global models ECHAM5 and HadCM3, predicted net negative sea-level contributions between -0.5 and -12mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2200. Increased glacier flow due to ice thickening returned ~15% of the increased accumulation to the sea by 2100 and ~30% by 2200. The likely change in volume of the APIS by 2200 in response to imposed 10 and 20km retreats of the grounding line at individual large outlet glaciers in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula, ranged between 0.5 and 3.5mm SLE per drainage basin. Ensemble calculations of APIS volume change resulting from imposed grounding-line retreat due to ice-shelf break-up scenarios applied to all 20 of the largest drainage basins in Palmer Land (covering ~40% of the total area of APIS) resulted in net sea-level contributions of 7-16mm SLE by 2100, and 10-25mm SLE by 2200. Inclusion of basins in the northern peninsula and realistic simulation of grounding-line movement for AP outlet glaciers will improve future projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Palmer Land University of California: eScholarship Journal of Glaciology 59 215 397 409 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Climate Action Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Barrand, Nicholas E Hindmarsh, Richard CA Arthern, Robert J Williams, C Rosie Mouginot, Jérémie Scheuchl, Bernd Rignot, Eric Ligtenberg, Stefan RM Van Den Broeke, Michiel R Edwards, Tamsin L Cook, Alison J Simonsen, Sebastian B Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
topic_facet |
Climate Action Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response using a linearized method. Volume change estimates of the APIS resulting from surface massbalance anomalies calculated by the regional model RACMO2, forced by A1B and E1 scenarios of the global models ECHAM5 and HadCM3, predicted net negative sea-level contributions between -0.5 and -12mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2200. Increased glacier flow due to ice thickening returned ~15% of the increased accumulation to the sea by 2100 and ~30% by 2200. The likely change in volume of the APIS by 2200 in response to imposed 10 and 20km retreats of the grounding line at individual large outlet glaciers in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula, ranged between 0.5 and 3.5mm SLE per drainage basin. Ensemble calculations of APIS volume change resulting from imposed grounding-line retreat due to ice-shelf break-up scenarios applied to all 20 of the largest drainage basins in Palmer Land (covering ~40% of the total area of APIS) resulted in net sea-level contributions of 7-16mm SLE by 2100, and 10-25mm SLE by 2200. Inclusion of basins in the northern peninsula and realistic simulation of grounding-line movement for AP outlet glaciers will improve future projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Barrand, Nicholas E Hindmarsh, Richard CA Arthern, Robert J Williams, C Rosie Mouginot, Jérémie Scheuchl, Bernd Rignot, Eric Ligtenberg, Stefan RM Van Den Broeke, Michiel R Edwards, Tamsin L Cook, Alison J Simonsen, Sebastian B |
author_facet |
Barrand, Nicholas E Hindmarsh, Richard CA Arthern, Robert J Williams, C Rosie Mouginot, Jérémie Scheuchl, Bernd Rignot, Eric Ligtenberg, Stefan RM Van Den Broeke, Michiel R Edwards, Tamsin L Cook, Alison J Simonsen, Sebastian B |
author_sort |
Barrand, Nicholas E |
title |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_short |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_full |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_fullStr |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_sort |
computing the volume response of the antarctic peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/content/qt5zh738nb/qt5zh738nb.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j139 |
op_coverage |
397 - 409 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Palmer Land |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Palmer Land |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, vol 59, iss 215 |
op_relation |
qt5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/content/qt5zh738nb/qt5zh738nb.pdf doi:10.3189/2013jog12j139 |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j139 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
59 |
container_issue |
215 |
container_start_page |
397 |
op_container_end_page |
409 |
_version_ |
1810491038427512832 |