Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas
Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distribut...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5s6446b2 2023-11-12T04:18:00+01:00 Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas John, Christian Post, Eric e9189 2022-08-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5s6446b2 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt5s6446b2 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5s6446b2 public Ecology and Evolution, vol 12, iss 8 Ecological Applications Biological Sciences Ecology Environmental Management Environmental Sciences Life on Land Climate Action Bovidae climate change conservation MaxEnt range shift species distribution modeling Evolutionary Biology article 2022 ftcdlib 2023-10-16T18:05:41Z Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world's rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species-specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Tundra University of California: eScholarship Greenland |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Ecological Applications Biological Sciences Ecology Environmental Management Environmental Sciences Life on Land Climate Action Bovidae climate change conservation MaxEnt range shift species distribution modeling Evolutionary Biology |
spellingShingle |
Ecological Applications Biological Sciences Ecology Environmental Management Environmental Sciences Life on Land Climate Action Bovidae climate change conservation MaxEnt range shift species distribution modeling Evolutionary Biology John, Christian Post, Eric Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas |
topic_facet |
Ecological Applications Biological Sciences Ecology Environmental Management Environmental Sciences Life on Land Climate Action Bovidae climate change conservation MaxEnt range shift species distribution modeling Evolutionary Biology |
description |
Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world's rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species-specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
John, Christian Post, Eric |
author_facet |
John, Christian Post, Eric |
author_sort |
John, Christian |
title |
Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas |
title_short |
Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas |
title_full |
Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas |
title_fullStr |
Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas |
title_sort |
projected bioclimatic distributions in nearctic bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5s6446b2 |
op_coverage |
e9189 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Tundra |
genre_facet |
Greenland Tundra |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution, vol 12, iss 8 |
op_relation |
qt5s6446b2 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5s6446b2 |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1782334736358703104 |