Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate-driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface-melt-driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavit...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
eScholarship, University of California
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rs4h36b https://escholarship.org/content/qt5rs4h36b/qt5rs4h36b.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081229 |
id |
ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5rs4h36b |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5rs4h36b 2024-09-15T17:46:53+00:00 Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse Martin, Daniel F Cornford, Stephen L Payne, Antony J 1467 - 1475 2019-02-16 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rs4h36b https://escholarship.org/content/qt5rs4h36b/qt5rs4h36b.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081229 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt5rs4h36b https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rs4h36b https://escholarship.org/content/qt5rs4h36b/qt5rs4h36b.pdf doi:10.1029/2018gl081229 public Geophysical Research Letters, vol 46, iss 3 Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2019 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081229 2024-06-28T06:28:19Z The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate-driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface-melt-driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding-line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high-resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full-continent simulations have typically been limited to low-resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present-day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ∼1-km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine-grounded portions of the WAIS. Vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves University of California: eScholarship Geophysical Research Letters 46 3 1467 1475 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Martin, Daniel F Cornford, Stephen L Payne, Antony J Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
topic_facet |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate-driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface-melt-driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding-line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high-resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full-continent simulations have typically been limited to low-resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present-day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ∼1-km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine-grounded portions of the WAIS. Vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Martin, Daniel F Cornford, Stephen L Payne, Antony J |
author_facet |
Martin, Daniel F Cornford, Stephen L Payne, Antony J |
author_sort |
Martin, Daniel F |
title |
Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_short |
Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_full |
Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_fullStr |
Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_full_unstemmed |
Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_sort |
millennial‐scale vulnerability of the antarctic ice sheet to regional ice shelf collapse |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rs4h36b https://escholarship.org/content/qt5rs4h36b/qt5rs4h36b.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081229 |
op_coverage |
1467 - 1475 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, vol 46, iss 3 |
op_relation |
qt5rs4h36b https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rs4h36b https://escholarship.org/content/qt5rs4h36b/qt5rs4h36b.pdf doi:10.1029/2018gl081229 |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081229 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1467 |
op_container_end_page |
1475 |
_version_ |
1810495314980765696 |