Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external f...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5r72x7rz 2024-05-19T07:28:19+00:00 Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change Bevan, Suzanne Cornford, Stephen Gilbert, Lin Otosaka, Inés Martin, Daniel Surawy-Stepney, Trystan 2023-01-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5r72x7rz unknown eScholarship, University of California qt5r72x7rz https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5r72x7rz CC-BY Earth Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2023 ftcdlib 2024-04-30T23:35:08Z Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet University of California: eScholarship |
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Open Polar |
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University of California: eScholarship |
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unknown |
topic |
Earth Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Bevan, Suzanne Cornford, Stephen Gilbert, Lin Otosaka, Inés Martin, Daniel Surawy-Stepney, Trystan Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bevan, Suzanne Cornford, Stephen Gilbert, Lin Otosaka, Inés Martin, Daniel Surawy-Stepney, Trystan |
author_facet |
Bevan, Suzanne Cornford, Stephen Gilbert, Lin Otosaka, Inés Martin, Daniel Surawy-Stepney, Trystan |
author_sort |
Bevan, Suzanne |
title |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_short |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_full |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_fullStr |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_sort |
amundsen sea embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5r72x7rz |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
qt5r72x7rz https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5r72x7rz |
op_rights |
CC-BY |
_version_ |
1799472345301123072 |