Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6
Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4kv8p410 2023-06-18T03:37:29+02:00 Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6 Roach, Lettie A Dörr, Jakob Holmes, Caroline R Massonnet, François Blockley, Edward W Notz, Dirk Rackow, Thomas Raphael, Marilyn N O'Farrell, Siobhan P Bailey, David A Bitz, Cecilia M 2020-05-16 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kv8p410 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt4kv8p410 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kv8p410 public Geophysical Research Letters, vol 47, iss 9 Climate Action sea ice CMIP6 Antarctica climate models Southern Ocean model evaluation Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2020 ftcdlib 2023-06-05T17:58:46Z Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture key characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausible historical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIA is consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea ice concentration has improved. Over 1979–2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIA concurrently with stronger-than-observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the end of the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice Southern Ocean University of California: eScholarship Antarctic Southern Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action sea ice CMIP6 Antarctica climate models Southern Ocean model evaluation Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Climate Action sea ice CMIP6 Antarctica climate models Southern Ocean model evaluation Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Roach, Lettie A Dörr, Jakob Holmes, Caroline R Massonnet, François Blockley, Edward W Notz, Dirk Rackow, Thomas Raphael, Marilyn N O'Farrell, Siobhan P Bailey, David A Bitz, Cecilia M Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6 |
topic_facet |
Climate Action sea ice CMIP6 Antarctica climate models Southern Ocean model evaluation Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture key characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausible historical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIA is consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea ice concentration has improved. Over 1979–2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIA concurrently with stronger-than-observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the end of the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Roach, Lettie A Dörr, Jakob Holmes, Caroline R Massonnet, François Blockley, Edward W Notz, Dirk Rackow, Thomas Raphael, Marilyn N O'Farrell, Siobhan P Bailey, David A Bitz, Cecilia M |
author_facet |
Roach, Lettie A Dörr, Jakob Holmes, Caroline R Massonnet, François Blockley, Edward W Notz, Dirk Rackow, Thomas Raphael, Marilyn N O'Farrell, Siobhan P Bailey, David A Bitz, Cecilia M |
author_sort |
Roach, Lettie A |
title |
Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
antarctic sea ice area in cmip6 |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kv8p410 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, vol 47, iss 9 |
op_relation |
qt4kv8p410 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kv8p410 |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1769010289798283264 |