Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change
Aim Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natura...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3zn3m523 2024-09-15T18:39:53+00:00 Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change Gonzalez, Patrick Neilson, Ronald P Lenihan, James M Drapek, Raymond J 755 - 768 2010-11-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zn3m523 https://escholarship.org/content/qt3zn3m523/qt3zn3m523.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x unknown eScholarship, University of California qt3zn3m523 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zn3m523 https://escholarship.org/content/qt3zn3m523/qt3zn3m523.pdf doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x CC-BY-NC-ND Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol 19, iss 6 Climate Action Adaptation biome change climate change dynamic global vegetation model natural resource management vegetation shifts vulnerability Ecology article 2010 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x 2024-06-28T06:28:19Z Aim Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We explore potential methods to identify areas vulnerable to vegetation shifts and potential refugia.Location Global vegetation biomes.Methods We examined nine combinations of three sets of potential indicators of the vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change: (1) observed changes of 20th-century climate, (2) projected 21st-century vegetation changes using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios, and (3) overlap of results from (1) and (2). Estimating probability density functions for climate observations and confidence levels for vegetation projections, we classified areas into vulnerability classes based on IPCC treatment of uncertainty.Results One-tenth to one-half of global land may be highly (confidence 0.80-0.95) to very highly (confidence ≥ 0.95) vulnerable. Temperate mixed forest, boreal conifer and tundra and alpine biomes show the highest vulnerability, often due to potential changes in wildfire. Tropical evergreen broadleaf forest and desert biomes show the lowest vulnerability.Main conclusions Spatial analyses of observed climate and projected vegetation indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change. A mismatch between vulnerability patterns and the geographic priorities of natural resource organizations suggests the need to adapt management plans. Approximately a billion people live in the areas classified as vulnerable. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra University of California: eScholarship Global Ecology and Biogeography 19 6 755 768 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action Adaptation biome change climate change dynamic global vegetation model natural resource management vegetation shifts vulnerability Ecology |
spellingShingle |
Climate Action Adaptation biome change climate change dynamic global vegetation model natural resource management vegetation shifts vulnerability Ecology Gonzalez, Patrick Neilson, Ronald P Lenihan, James M Drapek, Raymond J Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change |
topic_facet |
Climate Action Adaptation biome change climate change dynamic global vegetation model natural resource management vegetation shifts vulnerability Ecology |
description |
Aim Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We explore potential methods to identify areas vulnerable to vegetation shifts and potential refugia.Location Global vegetation biomes.Methods We examined nine combinations of three sets of potential indicators of the vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change: (1) observed changes of 20th-century climate, (2) projected 21st-century vegetation changes using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios, and (3) overlap of results from (1) and (2). Estimating probability density functions for climate observations and confidence levels for vegetation projections, we classified areas into vulnerability classes based on IPCC treatment of uncertainty.Results One-tenth to one-half of global land may be highly (confidence 0.80-0.95) to very highly (confidence ≥ 0.95) vulnerable. Temperate mixed forest, boreal conifer and tundra and alpine biomes show the highest vulnerability, often due to potential changes in wildfire. Tropical evergreen broadleaf forest and desert biomes show the lowest vulnerability.Main conclusions Spatial analyses of observed climate and projected vegetation indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change. A mismatch between vulnerability patterns and the geographic priorities of natural resource organizations suggests the need to adapt management plans. Approximately a billion people live in the areas classified as vulnerable. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gonzalez, Patrick Neilson, Ronald P Lenihan, James M Drapek, Raymond J |
author_facet |
Gonzalez, Patrick Neilson, Ronald P Lenihan, James M Drapek, Raymond J |
author_sort |
Gonzalez, Patrick |
title |
Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change |
title_short |
Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change |
title_full |
Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change |
title_sort |
global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zn3m523 https://escholarship.org/content/qt3zn3m523/qt3zn3m523.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x |
op_coverage |
755 - 768 |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_source |
Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol 19, iss 6 |
op_relation |
qt3zn3m523 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zn3m523 https://escholarship.org/content/qt3zn3m523/qt3zn3m523.pdf doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x |
op_rights |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x |
container_title |
Global Ecology and Biogeography |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
755 |
op_container_end_page |
768 |
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1810484218856210432 |