Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes
Abstract The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this trend, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has...
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2016
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3v71d691 2024-09-15T18:02:14+00:00 Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes Rosenblum, Erica Eisenman, Ian 9179 - 9188 2016-12-15 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3v71d691 https://escholarship.org/content/qt3v71d691/qt3v71d691.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0391.1 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt3v71d691 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3v71d691 https://escholarship.org/content/qt3v71d691/qt3v71d691.pdf doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0391.1 public Journal of Climate, vol 29, iss 24 Climate Action Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Geomatic Engineering Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2016 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0391.1 2024-06-28T06:28:19Z Abstract The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this trend, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted to have decreased in models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation of models (CMIP3). Here simulations are examined from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. It is found that simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced by volcanic forcing, which was included in all of the CMIP5 models but in only about half of the CMIP3 models. The volcanic forcing causes temporary simulated cooling in the 1980s and 1990s, which contributes to raising the simulated 1979–2013 global-mean surface temperature trends to values substantially larger than observed. It is shown that this warming bias is accompanied by an enhanced rate of Arctic sea ice retreat and hence a simulated sea ice trend that is closer to the observed value, which is consistent with previous findings of an approximately linear relationship between sea ice extent and global-mean surface temperature. Both generations of climate models are found to simulate Arctic sea ice that is substantially less sensitive to global warming than has been observed. The results imply that much of the difference in Arctic sea ice trends between CMIP3 and CMIP5 occurred because of the inclusion of volcanic forcing, rather than improved sea ice physics or model resolution. Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Global warming Sea ice University of California: eScholarship Journal of Climate 29 24 9179 9188 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Geomatic Engineering Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Climate Action Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Geomatic Engineering Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Rosenblum, Erica Eisenman, Ian Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes |
topic_facet |
Climate Action Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Geomatic Engineering Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Abstract The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this trend, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted to have decreased in models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation of models (CMIP3). Here simulations are examined from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. It is found that simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced by volcanic forcing, which was included in all of the CMIP5 models but in only about half of the CMIP3 models. The volcanic forcing causes temporary simulated cooling in the 1980s and 1990s, which contributes to raising the simulated 1979–2013 global-mean surface temperature trends to values substantially larger than observed. It is shown that this warming bias is accompanied by an enhanced rate of Arctic sea ice retreat and hence a simulated sea ice trend that is closer to the observed value, which is consistent with previous findings of an approximately linear relationship between sea ice extent and global-mean surface temperature. Both generations of climate models are found to simulate Arctic sea ice that is substantially less sensitive to global warming than has been observed. The results imply that much of the difference in Arctic sea ice trends between CMIP3 and CMIP5 occurred because of the inclusion of volcanic forcing, rather than improved sea ice physics or model resolution. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rosenblum, Erica Eisenman, Ian |
author_facet |
Rosenblum, Erica Eisenman, Ian |
author_sort |
Rosenblum, Erica |
title |
Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes |
title_short |
Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes |
title_full |
Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes |
title_fullStr |
Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes |
title_sort |
faster arctic sea ice retreat in cmip5 than in cmip3 due to volcanoes |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3v71d691 https://escholarship.org/content/qt3v71d691/qt3v71d691.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0391.1 |
op_coverage |
9179 - 9188 |
genre |
Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Climate, vol 29, iss 24 |
op_relation |
qt3v71d691 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3v71d691 https://escholarship.org/content/qt3v71d691/qt3v71d691.pdf doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0391.1 |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0391.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
9179 |
op_container_end_page |
9188 |
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1810439699762774016 |