Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin
Climate change is reorganizing the planet's biodiversity, necessitating proactive management of species and habitats based on spatiotemporal predictions of distributions across climate scenarios. In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification,...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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eScholarship, University of California
2022
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Online Access: | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3np9h0nv https://escholarship.org/content/qt3np9h0nv/qt3np9h0nv.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16415 |
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3np9h0nv 2024-09-15T18:18:02+00:00 Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin Gasbarro, Ryan Sowers, Derek Margolin, Alex Cordes, Erik E 7108 - 7125 2022-12-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3np9h0nv https://escholarship.org/content/qt3np9h0nv/qt3np9h0nv.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16415 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt3np9h0nv https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3np9h0nv https://escholarship.org/content/qt3np9h0nv/qt3np9h0nv.pdf doi:10.1111/gcb.16415 CC-BY Global Change Biology, vol 28, iss 23 Oceanography Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Biological Sciences Ecology Environmental Management Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences Climate Action Life Below Water Life on Land Animals Anthozoa Refugium Coral Reefs Ecosystem Hydrogen-Ion Concentration Seawater Climate Change Water Southeastern United States cold-water coral coral reef deep-sea habitat suitability model Lophelia pertusa species distribution model article 2022 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16415 2024-08-15T23:46:55Z Climate change is reorganizing the planet's biodiversity, necessitating proactive management of species and habitats based on spatiotemporal predictions of distributions across climate scenarios. In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in hydrodynamics. Lophelia pertusa, the main reef-forming coral present throughout the deep Atlantic Ocean (>200 m), is particularly sensitive to such stressors with stark reductions in suitable habitat predicted to accrue by 2100 in a business-as-usual scenario. However, with new occurrence data for this species along with higher-resolution bathymetry and climate data, it may be possible to locate further climatic refugia. Here, we synthesize new and published biogeographic, geomorphological, and climatic data to build ensemble, multi-scale habitat suitability models for L. pertusa on the continental margin of the southeast United States (SEUS). We then project these models in two timepoints (2050, 2100) and four climate change scenarios to characterize the occurrence probability of this critical cold-water coral (CWC) habitat now and in the future. Our models reveal the extent of reef habitat in the SEUS and corroborate it as the largest currently known essentially continuous CWC reef province on earth, and also predict abundance of L. pertusa to identify key areas, including those outside areas currently protected from bottom-contact fishing. Drastic reductions in L. pertusa climatic suitability index emerged primarily after 2050 and were concentrated at the shallower end (<~550 m) of the regional distribution under the Gulf Stream main axis. Our results thus suggest a depth-driven climate refuge effect where deeper, cooler reef sites experience lesser declines. The strength of this effect increases with climate scenario severity. Taken together, our study has implications for the regional and global management of this species, portending changes in the biodiversity reliant on CWC ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Lophelia pertusa Ocean acidification University of California: eScholarship Global Change Biology 28 23 7108 7125 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Oceanography Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Biological Sciences Ecology Environmental Management Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences Climate Action Life Below Water Life on Land Animals Anthozoa Refugium Coral Reefs Ecosystem Hydrogen-Ion Concentration Seawater Climate Change Water Southeastern United States cold-water coral coral reef deep-sea habitat suitability model Lophelia pertusa species distribution model |
spellingShingle |
Oceanography Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Biological Sciences Ecology Environmental Management Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences Climate Action Life Below Water Life on Land Animals Anthozoa Refugium Coral Reefs Ecosystem Hydrogen-Ion Concentration Seawater Climate Change Water Southeastern United States cold-water coral coral reef deep-sea habitat suitability model Lophelia pertusa species distribution model Gasbarro, Ryan Sowers, Derek Margolin, Alex Cordes, Erik E Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin |
topic_facet |
Oceanography Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Biological Sciences Ecology Environmental Management Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences Climate Action Life Below Water Life on Land Animals Anthozoa Refugium Coral Reefs Ecosystem Hydrogen-Ion Concentration Seawater Climate Change Water Southeastern United States cold-water coral coral reef deep-sea habitat suitability model Lophelia pertusa species distribution model |
description |
Climate change is reorganizing the planet's biodiversity, necessitating proactive management of species and habitats based on spatiotemporal predictions of distributions across climate scenarios. In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in hydrodynamics. Lophelia pertusa, the main reef-forming coral present throughout the deep Atlantic Ocean (>200 m), is particularly sensitive to such stressors with stark reductions in suitable habitat predicted to accrue by 2100 in a business-as-usual scenario. However, with new occurrence data for this species along with higher-resolution bathymetry and climate data, it may be possible to locate further climatic refugia. Here, we synthesize new and published biogeographic, geomorphological, and climatic data to build ensemble, multi-scale habitat suitability models for L. pertusa on the continental margin of the southeast United States (SEUS). We then project these models in two timepoints (2050, 2100) and four climate change scenarios to characterize the occurrence probability of this critical cold-water coral (CWC) habitat now and in the future. Our models reveal the extent of reef habitat in the SEUS and corroborate it as the largest currently known essentially continuous CWC reef province on earth, and also predict abundance of L. pertusa to identify key areas, including those outside areas currently protected from bottom-contact fishing. Drastic reductions in L. pertusa climatic suitability index emerged primarily after 2050 and were concentrated at the shallower end (<~550 m) of the regional distribution under the Gulf Stream main axis. Our results thus suggest a depth-driven climate refuge effect where deeper, cooler reef sites experience lesser declines. The strength of this effect increases with climate scenario severity. Taken together, our study has implications for the regional and global management of this species, portending changes in the biodiversity reliant on CWC ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gasbarro, Ryan Sowers, Derek Margolin, Alex Cordes, Erik E |
author_facet |
Gasbarro, Ryan Sowers, Derek Margolin, Alex Cordes, Erik E |
author_sort |
Gasbarro, Ryan |
title |
Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin |
title_short |
Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin |
title_full |
Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin |
title_fullStr |
Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin |
title_full_unstemmed |
Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin |
title_sort |
distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast us margin |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3np9h0nv https://escholarship.org/content/qt3np9h0nv/qt3np9h0nv.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16415 |
op_coverage |
7108 - 7125 |
genre |
Lophelia pertusa Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Lophelia pertusa Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Global Change Biology, vol 28, iss 23 |
op_relation |
qt3np9h0nv https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3np9h0nv https://escholarship.org/content/qt3np9h0nv/qt3np9h0nv.pdf doi:10.1111/gcb.16415 |
op_rights |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16415 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
7108 |
op_container_end_page |
7125 |
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1810456170023878656 |