A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers
Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such a...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3hf060hf 2023-11-05T03:36:59+01:00 A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Morlighem, Mathieu Borstad, Chris Sambridge, Malcolm 3187 - 3213 2018-01-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3hf060hf unknown eScholarship, University of California qt3hf060hf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3hf060hf public The Cryosphere, vol 12, iss 10 Earth Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Climate Action Oceanography Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2018 ftcdlib 2023-10-09T18:07:44Z Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84 % for grounded ice and 61 % for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26 % and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* The Cryosphere University of California: eScholarship |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
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language |
unknown |
topic |
Earth Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Climate Action Oceanography Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Climate Action Oceanography Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Morlighem, Mathieu Borstad, Chris Sambridge, Malcolm A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Climate Action Oceanography Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84 % for grounded ice and 61 % for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26 % and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Morlighem, Mathieu Borstad, Chris Sambridge, Malcolm |
author_facet |
Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Morlighem, Mathieu Borstad, Chris Sambridge, Malcolm |
author_sort |
Emetc, Veronika |
title |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_short |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_full |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_fullStr |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_full_unstemmed |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_sort |
statistical fracture model for antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3hf060hf |
op_coverage |
3187 - 3213 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, vol 12, iss 10 |
op_relation |
qt3hf060hf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3hf060hf |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1781692323128672256 |