Ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica
Model projections of ice flow in a changing climate are dependent on model inputs such as surface elevation, bedrock position or surface temperatures, among others. Of all these inputs, geothermal heat flux is the one for which uncertainty is greatest. In the area of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica,...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |
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2012
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Online Access: | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gz689fg https://escholarship.org/content/qt3gz689fg/qt3gz689fg.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jf002371 |
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3gz689fg 2024-09-15T17:43:46+00:00 Ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica Larour, E Morlighem, M Seroussi, H Schiermeier, J Rignot, E n/a - n/a 2012-12-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gz689fg https://escholarship.org/content/qt3gz689fg/qt3gz689fg.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jf002371 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt3gz689fg https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gz689fg https://escholarship.org/content/qt3gz689fg/qt3gz689fg.pdf doi:10.1029/2012jf002371 CC-BY Journal of Geophysical Research, vol 117, iss F4 Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2012 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jf002371 2024-06-28T06:28:20Z Model projections of ice flow in a changing climate are dependent on model inputs such as surface elevation, bedrock position or surface temperatures, among others. Of all these inputs, geothermal heat flux is the one for which uncertainty is greatest. In the area of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, available data sets differ by up to a factor of 2.5. Here, we evaluate the impact of such uncertainty on ice flow, using sampling analyses based on the Latin-Hypercube method. First, we quantify the impact of geothermal heat flux errors on ice hardness, a thermal parameter that critically controls the magnitude of ice flow. Second, we quantify the impact of the same errors on mass balance, specifically on the mass flux advecting through thirteen fluxgates distributed across Pine Island Glacier. We contrast our Results with similar uncertainties generated by errors in the specification of ice thickness. Model outputs indicate that geothermal heat flux errors yield uncertainties on ice hardness on the order of 5-7%, with maximum uncertainty reaching 15%. Resulting uncertainties in mass balance remain however below 1%. We discuss the uncertainty distribution and its relationship to the amount of heat available at the base of the ice sheet from friction, viscous and geothermal heating. We also show that comparatively, errors in ice thickness contribute more to model uncertainty than errors in geothermal heat flux, especially for fast-flowing ice streams. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier University of California: eScholarship Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 117 F4 |
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University of California: eScholarship |
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unknown |
topic |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
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Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Larour, E Morlighem, M Seroussi, H Schiermeier, J Rignot, E Ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica |
topic_facet |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Model projections of ice flow in a changing climate are dependent on model inputs such as surface elevation, bedrock position or surface temperatures, among others. Of all these inputs, geothermal heat flux is the one for which uncertainty is greatest. In the area of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, available data sets differ by up to a factor of 2.5. Here, we evaluate the impact of such uncertainty on ice flow, using sampling analyses based on the Latin-Hypercube method. First, we quantify the impact of geothermal heat flux errors on ice hardness, a thermal parameter that critically controls the magnitude of ice flow. Second, we quantify the impact of the same errors on mass balance, specifically on the mass flux advecting through thirteen fluxgates distributed across Pine Island Glacier. We contrast our Results with similar uncertainties generated by errors in the specification of ice thickness. Model outputs indicate that geothermal heat flux errors yield uncertainties on ice hardness on the order of 5-7%, with maximum uncertainty reaching 15%. Resulting uncertainties in mass balance remain however below 1%. We discuss the uncertainty distribution and its relationship to the amount of heat available at the base of the ice sheet from friction, viscous and geothermal heating. We also show that comparatively, errors in ice thickness contribute more to model uncertainty than errors in geothermal heat flux, especially for fast-flowing ice streams. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Larour, E Morlighem, M Seroussi, H Schiermeier, J Rignot, E |
author_facet |
Larour, E Morlighem, M Seroussi, H Schiermeier, J Rignot, E |
author_sort |
Larour, E |
title |
Ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica |
title_short |
Ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica |
title_full |
Ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica |
title_sort |
ice flow sensitivity to geothermal heat flux of pine island glacier, antarctica |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gz689fg https://escholarship.org/content/qt3gz689fg/qt3gz689fg.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jf002371 |
op_coverage |
n/a - n/a |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research, vol 117, iss F4 |
op_relation |
qt3gz689fg https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gz689fg https://escholarship.org/content/qt3gz689fg/qt3gz689fg.pdf doi:10.1029/2012jf002371 |
op_rights |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jf002371 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |
container_volume |
117 |
container_issue |
F4 |
_version_ |
1810490925360611328 |