False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss
Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing va...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2n03p7qb https://escholarship.org/content/qt2n03p7qb/qt2n03p7qb.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066297 |
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2n03p7qb 2024-09-09T20:07:10+00:00 False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss Wagner, Till JW Eisenman, Ian 10 - 341 2015-12-16 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2n03p7qb https://escholarship.org/content/qt2n03p7qb/qt2n03p7qb.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066297 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt2n03p7qb https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2n03p7qb https://escholarship.org/content/qt2n03p7qb/qt2n03p7qb.pdf doi:10.1002/2015gl066297 public Geophysical Research Letters, vol 42, iss 23 Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2015 ftcdlib https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066297 2024-06-28T06:28:19Z Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice University of California: eScholarship Geophysical Research Letters 42 23 |
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Open Polar |
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University of California: eScholarship |
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language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
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Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Wagner, Till JW Eisenman, Ian False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss |
topic_facet |
Climate Action Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wagner, Till JW Eisenman, Ian |
author_facet |
Wagner, Till JW Eisenman, Ian |
author_sort |
Wagner, Till JW |
title |
False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss |
title_short |
False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss |
title_full |
False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss |
title_sort |
false alarms: how early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2n03p7qb https://escholarship.org/content/qt2n03p7qb/qt2n03p7qb.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066297 |
op_coverage |
10 - 341 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, vol 42, iss 23 |
op_relation |
qt2n03p7qb https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2n03p7qb https://escholarship.org/content/qt2n03p7qb/qt2n03p7qb.pdf doi:10.1002/2015gl066297 |
op_rights |
public |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066297 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
42 |
container_issue |
23 |
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1809939925794029568 |