Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring.
The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn h...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2cc268w9 2024-04-28T08:15:30+00:00 Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz, Andrés de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Øystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Brøseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas 2020-12-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2cc268w9 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt2cc268w9 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2cc268w9 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 117, iss 48 density surface imperfect detection noninvasive monitoring of large carnivores spatial capture–recapture vital rates Algorithms Animals Wild Genetics Population Geography Models Theoretical Population Dynamics Predatory Behavior Spatial Analysis article 2020 ftcdlib 2024-04-03T14:14:44Z The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the worlds largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos University of California: eScholarship |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
density surface imperfect detection noninvasive monitoring of large carnivores spatial capture–recapture vital rates Algorithms Animals Wild Genetics Population Geography Models Theoretical Population Dynamics Predatory Behavior Spatial Analysis |
spellingShingle |
density surface imperfect detection noninvasive monitoring of large carnivores spatial capture–recapture vital rates Algorithms Animals Wild Genetics Population Geography Models Theoretical Population Dynamics Predatory Behavior Spatial Analysis Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz, Andrés de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Øystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Brøseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. |
topic_facet |
density surface imperfect detection noninvasive monitoring of large carnivores spatial capture–recapture vital rates Algorithms Animals Wild Genetics Population Geography Models Theoretical Population Dynamics Predatory Behavior Spatial Analysis |
description |
The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the worlds largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz, Andrés de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Øystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Brøseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas |
author_facet |
Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz, Andrés de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Øystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Brøseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas |
author_sort |
Bischof, Richard |
title |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. |
title_short |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. |
title_full |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. |
title_fullStr |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. |
title_sort |
estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2cc268w9 |
genre |
Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos |
op_source |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 117, iss 48 |
op_relation |
qt2cc268w9 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2cc268w9 |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1797581020936011776 |