Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population
As the effects of regional climate change are most pronounced at polar latitudes, we might expect polar-ward migratory populations to respond as habitat suitability changes. The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina L.) is a pole-ward migratory species whose populations have mostly stabilized or...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt17d8g5n0 2023-10-25T01:32:25+02:00 Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population van den Hoff, John McMahon, Clive R Simpkins, Graham R Hindell, Mark A Alderman, Rachael Burton, Harry R 20132842 2014-05-07 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17d8g5n0 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt17d8g5n0 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17d8g5n0 public Proceedings of the Royal Society B, vol 281, iss 1782 Environmental Sciences Biological Sciences Ecology Climate Action Animals Antarctic Regions Climate Change Ecosystem Female Ice Cover Population Dynamics Reproduction Seals Earless Tasmania Mirounga leonina rate of population change sea-ice duration southern annular mode winners and losers Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences Medical and Health Sciences Agricultural veterinary and food sciences article 2014 ftcdlib 2023-09-25T18:04:43Z As the effects of regional climate change are most pronounced at polar latitudes, we might expect polar-ward migratory populations to respond as habitat suitability changes. The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina L.) is a pole-ward migratory species whose populations have mostly stabilized or increased in the past decade, the one exception being the Macquarie Island population which has decreased continuously over the past 50 years. To explore probable causes of this anomalous trend, we counted breeding female seals annually between 1988 and 2011 in order to relate annual rates of population change (r) to foraging habitat changes that have known connections with atmospheric variability. We found r (i) varied annually from -0.016 to 0.021 over the study period, (ii) was most effected by anomalous atmospheric variability after a 3 year time lag was introduced (R = 0.51) and (iii) was associated with sea-ice duration (SID) within the seals' foraging range at the same temporal lag. Negative r years may be extrapolated to explain, at least partially, the overall trend in seal abundance at Macquarie Island; specifically, increasing SID within the seals foraging range has a negative influence on their abundance at the island. Evidence is accruing that suggests southern elephant seal populations may respond positively to a reduced sea-ice field. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seal Macquarie Island Mirounga leonina Sea ice Southern Elephant Seal University of California: eScholarship Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Environmental Sciences Biological Sciences Ecology Climate Action Animals Antarctic Regions Climate Change Ecosystem Female Ice Cover Population Dynamics Reproduction Seals Earless Tasmania Mirounga leonina rate of population change sea-ice duration southern annular mode winners and losers Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences Medical and Health Sciences Agricultural veterinary and food sciences |
spellingShingle |
Environmental Sciences Biological Sciences Ecology Climate Action Animals Antarctic Regions Climate Change Ecosystem Female Ice Cover Population Dynamics Reproduction Seals Earless Tasmania Mirounga leonina rate of population change sea-ice duration southern annular mode winners and losers Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences Medical and Health Sciences Agricultural veterinary and food sciences van den Hoff, John McMahon, Clive R Simpkins, Graham R Hindell, Mark A Alderman, Rachael Burton, Harry R Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population |
topic_facet |
Environmental Sciences Biological Sciences Ecology Climate Action Animals Antarctic Regions Climate Change Ecosystem Female Ice Cover Population Dynamics Reproduction Seals Earless Tasmania Mirounga leonina rate of population change sea-ice duration southern annular mode winners and losers Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences Medical and Health Sciences Agricultural veterinary and food sciences |
description |
As the effects of regional climate change are most pronounced at polar latitudes, we might expect polar-ward migratory populations to respond as habitat suitability changes. The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina L.) is a pole-ward migratory species whose populations have mostly stabilized or increased in the past decade, the one exception being the Macquarie Island population which has decreased continuously over the past 50 years. To explore probable causes of this anomalous trend, we counted breeding female seals annually between 1988 and 2011 in order to relate annual rates of population change (r) to foraging habitat changes that have known connections with atmospheric variability. We found r (i) varied annually from -0.016 to 0.021 over the study period, (ii) was most effected by anomalous atmospheric variability after a 3 year time lag was introduced (R = 0.51) and (iii) was associated with sea-ice duration (SID) within the seals' foraging range at the same temporal lag. Negative r years may be extrapolated to explain, at least partially, the overall trend in seal abundance at Macquarie Island; specifically, increasing SID within the seals foraging range has a negative influence on their abundance at the island. Evidence is accruing that suggests southern elephant seal populations may respond positively to a reduced sea-ice field. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van den Hoff, John McMahon, Clive R Simpkins, Graham R Hindell, Mark A Alderman, Rachael Burton, Harry R |
author_facet |
van den Hoff, John McMahon, Clive R Simpkins, Graham R Hindell, Mark A Alderman, Rachael Burton, Harry R |
author_sort |
van den Hoff, John |
title |
Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population |
title_short |
Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population |
title_full |
Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population |
title_fullStr |
Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population |
title_sort |
bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17d8g5n0 |
op_coverage |
20132842 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seal Macquarie Island Mirounga leonina Sea ice Southern Elephant Seal |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seal Macquarie Island Mirounga leonina Sea ice Southern Elephant Seal |
op_source |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B, vol 281, iss 1782 |
op_relation |
qt17d8g5n0 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17d8g5n0 |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1780728122998521856 |