Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

• Main Authors: Collaborators, GBD 2016 SDG, Fullman, Nancy, Barber, Ryan M, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afshin, Ashkan, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aiyar, Sneha, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alasfoor, Deena, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Ansari, Hossein, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Assadi, Reza, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atre, Sachin R, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Azzopardi, Peter, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bannick, Marlena S, Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Bärnighausen, Till, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Sanjay, Battle, Katherine E, Baune, Bernhard T, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennett, James R, Bensenor, Isabela M, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhansali, Anil, Bhatt, Samir, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast, Bikbov, Boris, Bilal, Arebu I, Birungi, Charles, Biryukov, Stan, Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie, Blosser, Christopher D, Boneya, Dube Jara, Bose, Dipan, Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: eScholarship, University of California 2017
• Subjects: Infectious Diseases; Pediatric; Prevention; Rare Diseases; Good Health and Well Being; Adolescent; Adult; Child; Child Abuse; Sexual; Preschool; Conservation of Natural Resources; Female; Global Burden of Disease; Global Health; Health Status; Health Status Indicators; Humans; Infant; Infant Mortality; Newborn; Male; Middle Aged; Noncommunicable Diseases; Quality-Adjusted Life Years; Sex Offenses; Young Adult; GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators; Medical and Health Sciences; General & Internal Medicine; Iceland
• Online Access: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0sb969mx

BackgroundThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.MethodsWe used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.FindingsGlobally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable ...