Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change
Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST inc...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0kx0b7h0 2024-01-14T10:08:55+01:00 Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change Huang, Huanping Patricola, Christina M Winter, Jonathan M Osterberg, Erich C Mankin, Justin S 2021-09-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kx0b7h0 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt0kx0b7h0 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kx0b7h0 public Earth Sciences Oceanography Climate Action Extreme precipitation Atlantic sea surface temperatures Anthropogenic forcings Atlantic multidecadal variability Optimal fingerprinting Time of detection Atmospheric Sciences Climate change science article 2021 ftcdlib 2023-12-18T19:06:49Z Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST increases by using the Community Earth System Model large ensembles and an optimal fingerprint method to isolate the effects of different forcings on 1929–2018 Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs. We find that external forcings have significantly influenced both Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs, with a time of detection in 2008 and 1968, respectively. Beyond SST changes attributable to internal variability of the Atlantic, anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases are important drivers of SST changes, first detected in 1968 and 1983, respectively. Greenhouse gases are the only anthropogenic forcing exerting substantial influence on EP, first detected in 2008. We therefore attribute the 1996 EP shift to both unforced Atlantic variability and anthropogenic forcings. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of California: eScholarship |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Climate Action Extreme precipitation Atlantic sea surface temperatures Anthropogenic forcings Atlantic multidecadal variability Optimal fingerprinting Time of detection Atmospheric Sciences Climate change science |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Climate Action Extreme precipitation Atlantic sea surface temperatures Anthropogenic forcings Atlantic multidecadal variability Optimal fingerprinting Time of detection Atmospheric Sciences Climate change science Huang, Huanping Patricola, Christina M Winter, Jonathan M Osterberg, Erich C Mankin, Justin S Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Climate Action Extreme precipitation Atlantic sea surface temperatures Anthropogenic forcings Atlantic multidecadal variability Optimal fingerprinting Time of detection Atmospheric Sciences Climate change science |
description |
Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST increases by using the Community Earth System Model large ensembles and an optimal fingerprint method to isolate the effects of different forcings on 1929–2018 Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs. We find that external forcings have significantly influenced both Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs, with a time of detection in 2008 and 1968, respectively. Beyond SST changes attributable to internal variability of the Atlantic, anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases are important drivers of SST changes, first detected in 1968 and 1983, respectively. Greenhouse gases are the only anthropogenic forcing exerting substantial influence on EP, first detected in 2008. We therefore attribute the 1996 EP shift to both unforced Atlantic variability and anthropogenic forcings. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huang, Huanping Patricola, Christina M Winter, Jonathan M Osterberg, Erich C Mankin, Justin S |
author_facet |
Huang, Huanping Patricola, Christina M Winter, Jonathan M Osterberg, Erich C Mankin, Justin S |
author_sort |
Huang, Huanping |
title |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_short |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_full |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_fullStr |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_sort |
rise in northeast us extreme precipitation caused by atlantic variability and climate change |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kx0b7h0 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
qt0kx0b7h0 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kx0b7h0 |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1788063351341842432 |