Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison
This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which w...
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2020
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt9cm9899k 2023-05-15T14:57:20+02:00 Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison Andresen, CG Lawrence, DM Wilson, CJ David McGuire, A Koven, C Schaefer, K Jafarov, E Peng, S Chen, X Gouttevin, I Burke, E Chadburn, S Ji, D Chen, G Hayes, D Zhang, W 445 - 459 2020-02-05 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cm9899k unknown eScholarship, University of California qt9cm9899k https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cm9899k public Cryosphere, vol 14, iss 2 Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience article 2020 ftcdlib 2021-04-16T07:11:22Z This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic permafrost University of California: eScholarship Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Andresen, CG Lawrence, DM Wilson, CJ David McGuire, A Koven, C Schaefer, K Jafarov, E Peng, S Chen, X Gouttevin, I Burke, E Chadburn, S Ji, D Chen, G Hayes, D Zhang, W Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
topic_facet |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
description |
This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andresen, CG Lawrence, DM Wilson, CJ David McGuire, A Koven, C Schaefer, K Jafarov, E Peng, S Chen, X Gouttevin, I Burke, E Chadburn, S Ji, D Chen, G Hayes, D Zhang, W |
author_facet |
Andresen, CG Lawrence, DM Wilson, CJ David McGuire, A Koven, C Schaefer, K Jafarov, E Peng, S Chen, X Gouttevin, I Burke, E Chadburn, S Ji, D Chen, G Hayes, D Zhang, W |
author_sort |
Andresen, CG |
title |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_short |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_full |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_fullStr |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_full_unstemmed |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_sort |
soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cm9899k |
op_coverage |
445 - 459 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost |
op_source |
Cryosphere, vol 14, iss 2 |
op_relation |
qt9cm9899k https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cm9899k |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1766329415643430912 |