Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise.
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projec...
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2021
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt7g0745ms 2023-05-15T14:02:37+02:00 Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. Edwards, Tamsin L Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C Slater, Donald A Turner, Fiona E Smith, Christopher J McKenna, Christine M Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H Payne, Antony J Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le Clec'h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R Little, Christopher M Lowry, Daniel P Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O'Neill, James F Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 74 - 82 2021-05-05 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7g0745ms unknown eScholarship, University of California qt7g0745ms https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7g0745ms public Nature, vol 593, iss 7857 General Science & Technology article 2021 ftcdlib 2021-05-30T17:54:41Z The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25to 13centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. Theprojected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing touncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5degrees Celsius warming and 42centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet University of California: eScholarship Antarctic The Antarctic |
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Open Polar |
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University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
General Science & Technology |
spellingShingle |
General Science & Technology Edwards, Tamsin L Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C Slater, Donald A Turner, Fiona E Smith, Christopher J McKenna, Christine M Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H Payne, Antony J Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le Clec'h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R Little, Christopher M Lowry, Daniel P Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O'Neill, James F Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. |
topic_facet |
General Science & Technology |
description |
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25to 13centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. Theprojected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing touncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5degrees Celsius warming and 42centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, Tamsin L Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C Slater, Donald A Turner, Fiona E Smith, Christopher J McKenna, Christine M Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H Payne, Antony J Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le Clec'h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R Little, Christopher M Lowry, Daniel P Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O'Neill, James F Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_facet |
Edwards, Tamsin L Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C Slater, Donald A Turner, Fiona E Smith, Christopher J McKenna, Christine M Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H Payne, Antony J Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le Clec'h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R Little, Christopher M Lowry, Daniel P Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O'Neill, James F Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Edwards, Tamsin L |
title |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. |
title_short |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. |
title_full |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. |
title_fullStr |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. |
title_sort |
projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7g0745ms |
op_coverage |
74 - 82 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nature, vol 593, iss 7857 |
op_relation |
qt7g0745ms https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7g0745ms |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1766272929859895296 |