Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200
The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt5zh738nb 2023-05-15T14:02:59+02:00 Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 Barrand, NE Hindmarsh, RCA Arthern, RJ Williams, CR Mouginot, J Scheuchl, B Rignot, E Ligtenberg, SRM Van Den Broeke, MR Edwards, TL Cook, AJ Simonsen, SB 397 - 409 2013-07-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb unknown eScholarship, University of California qt5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb public Journal of Glaciology, vol 59, iss 215 Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience article 2013 ftcdlib 2021-06-20T14:23:08Z The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response using a linearized method. Volume change estimates of the APIS resulting from surface massbalance anomalies calculated by the regional model RACMO2, forced by A1B and E1 scenarios of the global models ECHAM5 and HadCM3, predicted net negative sea-level contributions between -0.5 and -12mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2200. Increased glacier flow due to ice thickening returned ~15% of the increased accumulation to the sea by 2100 and ~30% by 2200. The likely change in volume of the APIS by 2200 in response to imposed 10 and 20km retreats of the grounding line at individual large outlet glaciers in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula, ranged between 0.5 and 3.5mm SLE per drainage basin. Ensemble calculations of APIS volume change resulting from imposed grounding-line retreat due to ice-shelf break-up scenarios applied to all 20 of the largest drainage basins in Palmer Land (covering ~40% of the total area of APIS) resulted in net sea-level contributions of 7-16mm SLE by 2100, and 10-25mm SLE by 2200. Inclusion of basins in the northern peninsula and realistic simulation of grounding-line movement for AP outlet glaciers will improve future projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Palmer Land University of California: eScholarship Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Palmer Land ENVELOPE(-65.000,-65.000,-71.500,-71.500) The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Barrand, NE Hindmarsh, RCA Arthern, RJ Williams, CR Mouginot, J Scheuchl, B Rignot, E Ligtenberg, SRM Van Den Broeke, MR Edwards, TL Cook, AJ Simonsen, SB Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
topic_facet |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
description |
The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response using a linearized method. Volume change estimates of the APIS resulting from surface massbalance anomalies calculated by the regional model RACMO2, forced by A1B and E1 scenarios of the global models ECHAM5 and HadCM3, predicted net negative sea-level contributions between -0.5 and -12mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2200. Increased glacier flow due to ice thickening returned ~15% of the increased accumulation to the sea by 2100 and ~30% by 2200. The likely change in volume of the APIS by 2200 in response to imposed 10 and 20km retreats of the grounding line at individual large outlet glaciers in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula, ranged between 0.5 and 3.5mm SLE per drainage basin. Ensemble calculations of APIS volume change resulting from imposed grounding-line retreat due to ice-shelf break-up scenarios applied to all 20 of the largest drainage basins in Palmer Land (covering ~40% of the total area of APIS) resulted in net sea-level contributions of 7-16mm SLE by 2100, and 10-25mm SLE by 2200. Inclusion of basins in the northern peninsula and realistic simulation of grounding-line movement for AP outlet glaciers will improve future projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Barrand, NE Hindmarsh, RCA Arthern, RJ Williams, CR Mouginot, J Scheuchl, B Rignot, E Ligtenberg, SRM Van Den Broeke, MR Edwards, TL Cook, AJ Simonsen, SB |
author_facet |
Barrand, NE Hindmarsh, RCA Arthern, RJ Williams, CR Mouginot, J Scheuchl, B Rignot, E Ligtenberg, SRM Van Den Broeke, MR Edwards, TL Cook, AJ Simonsen, SB |
author_sort |
Barrand, NE |
title |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_short |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_full |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_fullStr |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
title_sort |
computing the volume response of the antarctic peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200 |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb |
op_coverage |
397 - 409 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-65.000,-65.000,-71.500,-71.500) |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Palmer Land The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Palmer Land The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Palmer Land |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Palmer Land |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, vol 59, iss 215 |
op_relation |
qt5zh738nb https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zh738nb |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1766273431632871424 |