Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations
This study examines the relationship between the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic in simulations of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparisons of internal (using preindustrial control simulations) and e...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt5rw3z626 2023-05-15T17:26:38+02:00 Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations Peings, Y Simpkins, G Magnusdottir, G 2571 - 2592 2016-03-27 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rw3z626 unknown eScholarship, University of California qt5rw3z626 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rw3z626 public Journal of Geophysical Research, vol 121, iss 6 Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ocean-atmosphere coupling CMIP5 control simulations decadal predictability North Atlantic Oscillation internal climate variability Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences article 2016 ftcdlib 2021-04-16T07:11:37Z This study examines the relationship between the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic in simulations of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparisons of internal (using preindustrial control simulations) and externally forced (using historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 simulations) simulated AMV with observations suggest that the CMIP5 models lack internally generated AMV, except for two models (GFDL-ESM2G and HadGEM2-ES). A long-term influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the AMV is identified, but no consistent feedback of the AMV onto the atmospheric circulation is found among the models. However, GFDL-ESM2G and HadGEM2-ES show a small lagged NAO signal that suggests a driving role of the ocean on decadal fluctuations of the atmosphere, with two different potential mechanisms. HadGEM2-ES exhibits a latitudinal shift of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone that can modulate the NAO through a Rossby wave train emanating from the tropics. In GFDL-ESM2G, the AMV is associated with a decrease in storm track activity and a shift of the intraseasonal weather regimes toward the negative NAO regime. These results raise hope that some long-term predictability of the winter climate over the North Atlantic and surrounding continents could be extracted from long-term oceanic fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean, provided that the AMV is correctly represented in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of California: eScholarship |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ocean-atmosphere coupling CMIP5 control simulations decadal predictability North Atlantic Oscillation internal climate variability Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ocean-atmosphere coupling CMIP5 control simulations decadal predictability North Atlantic Oscillation internal climate variability Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Peings, Y Simpkins, G Magnusdottir, G Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations |
topic_facet |
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ocean-atmosphere coupling CMIP5 control simulations decadal predictability North Atlantic Oscillation internal climate variability Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
This study examines the relationship between the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic in simulations of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparisons of internal (using preindustrial control simulations) and externally forced (using historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 simulations) simulated AMV with observations suggest that the CMIP5 models lack internally generated AMV, except for two models (GFDL-ESM2G and HadGEM2-ES). A long-term influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the AMV is identified, but no consistent feedback of the AMV onto the atmospheric circulation is found among the models. However, GFDL-ESM2G and HadGEM2-ES show a small lagged NAO signal that suggests a driving role of the ocean on decadal fluctuations of the atmosphere, with two different potential mechanisms. HadGEM2-ES exhibits a latitudinal shift of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone that can modulate the NAO through a Rossby wave train emanating from the tropics. In GFDL-ESM2G, the AMV is associated with a decrease in storm track activity and a shift of the intraseasonal weather regimes toward the negative NAO regime. These results raise hope that some long-term predictability of the winter climate over the North Atlantic and surrounding continents could be extracted from long-term oceanic fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean, provided that the AMV is correctly represented in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Peings, Y Simpkins, G Magnusdottir, G |
author_facet |
Peings, Y Simpkins, G Magnusdottir, G |
author_sort |
Peings, Y |
title |
Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations |
title_short |
Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations |
title_full |
Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations |
title_fullStr |
Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations |
title_sort |
multidecadal fluctuations of the north atlantic ocean and feedback on the winter climate in cmip5 control simulations |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rw3z626 |
op_coverage |
2571 - 2592 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research, vol 121, iss 6 |
op_relation |
qt5rw3z626 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rw3z626 |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1766118375184924672 |