Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions.
In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrome...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt20q2s0xt 2023-05-15T13:14:59+02:00 Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. Polade, Suraj D Gershunov, Alexander Cayan, Daniel R Dettinger, Michael D Pierce, David W 10783 2017-09-07 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/20q2s0xt unknown eScholarship, University of California qt20q2s0xt https://escholarship.org/uc/item/20q2s0xt public Scientific reports, vol 7, iss 1 article 2017 ftcdlib 2020-06-06T07:53:09Z In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California's more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low University of California: eScholarship |
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description |
In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California's more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Polade, Suraj D Gershunov, Alexander Cayan, Daniel R Dettinger, Michael D Pierce, David W |
spellingShingle |
Polade, Suraj D Gershunov, Alexander Cayan, Daniel R Dettinger, Michael D Pierce, David W Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. |
author_facet |
Polade, Suraj D Gershunov, Alexander Cayan, Daniel R Dettinger, Michael D Pierce, David W |
author_sort |
Polade, Suraj D |
title |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. |
title_short |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. |
title_full |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. |
title_fullStr |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. |
title_sort |
precipitation in a warming world: assessing projected hydro-climate changes in california and other mediterranean climate regions. |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/20q2s0xt |
op_coverage |
10783 |
genre |
aleutian low |
genre_facet |
aleutian low |
op_source |
Scientific reports, vol 7, iss 1 |
op_relation |
qt20q2s0xt https://escholarship.org/uc/item/20q2s0xt |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1766266429608296448 |