Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area
We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and dist...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt1mc506vg 2023-05-15T17:55:21+02:00 Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area Wang, W Rinke, A Moore, JC Cui, X Ji, D Li, Q Zhang, N Wang, C Zhang, S Lawrence, DM McGuire, AD Zhang, W Delire, C Koven, C Saito, K MacDougall, A Burke, E Decharme, B 287 - 306 2016-02-05 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mc506vg unknown eScholarship, University of California qt1mc506vg https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mc506vg public Cryosphere, vol 10, iss 1 Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience article 2016 ftcdlib 2021-06-21T17:05:33Z We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×104km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost University of California: eScholarship Jules ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California: eScholarship |
op_collection_id |
ftcdlib |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Wang, W Rinke, A Moore, JC Cui, X Ji, D Li, Q Zhang, N Wang, C Zhang, S Lawrence, DM McGuire, AD Zhang, W Delire, C Koven, C Saito, K MacDougall, A Burke, E Decharme, B Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
topic_facet |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
description |
We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×104km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, W Rinke, A Moore, JC Cui, X Ji, D Li, Q Zhang, N Wang, C Zhang, S Lawrence, DM McGuire, AD Zhang, W Delire, C Koven, C Saito, K MacDougall, A Burke, E Decharme, B |
author_facet |
Wang, W Rinke, A Moore, JC Cui, X Ji, D Li, Q Zhang, N Wang, C Zhang, S Lawrence, DM McGuire, AD Zhang, W Delire, C Koven, C Saito, K MacDougall, A Burke, E Decharme, B |
author_sort |
Wang, W |
title |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_short |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_full |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_fullStr |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_full_unstemmed |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_sort |
diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated tibetan permafrost area |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mc506vg |
op_coverage |
287 - 306 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
geographic |
Jules |
geographic_facet |
Jules |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Cryosphere, vol 10, iss 1 |
op_relation |
qt1mc506vg https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mc506vg |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1766163267654254592 |