Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios
Ocean wave climate is an important area of research, particularly in the context of extremes driven by tropical cyclones (TC). We can now simulate global climate at resolutions sufficient to resolve TCs and for durations long enough to explore climatological changes. Both the devastating 2017 North...
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ftcdlib:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt055009bx 2023-05-15T17:34:15+02:00 Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios Timmermans, B Patricola, C Wehner, M 88 - 99 2018-06-01 application/pdf https://escholarship.org/uc/item/055009bx unknown eScholarship, University of California qt055009bx https://escholarship.org/uc/item/055009bx public Oceanography, vol 31, iss 2 Special Issue Oceanography article 2018 ftcdlib 2021-04-16T07:10:25Z Ocean wave climate is an important area of research, particularly in the context of extremes driven by tropical cyclones (TC). We can now simulate global climate at resolutions sufficient to resolve TCs and for durations long enough to explore climatological changes. Both the devastating 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season and growing evidence for the connection between TC activity and increasing ocean temperature motivate investigation of possible future changes. We present two simulated 50-year global wave climate data sets under possible future warming scenarios characterized by +1.5°C and +2.0°C stabilized global mean temperatures that capture the effects of TCs. Differences in extreme wave climate between these possible scenarios and present-day conditions appear to be significant in many areas, particularly those affected by TCs. However, for computational feasibility, simulations of this kind rely on fixed sea surface temperatures, so we also investigate and elucidate effects from the lack of a dynamic ocean by simulating waves from a number of recent hurricanes and comparing output to observations. We conclude that atmosphere-only forcing is likely to result in an overestimate of extreme wind speeds and wave heights in TC-affected regions. More ensemble studies are needed to help elucidate detailed processes relevant to extreme wave climate, and important community projects such as the Coordinated Wave Climate Intercomparison Project (COWCLIP) should be supported. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of California: eScholarship |
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University of California: eScholarship |
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Oceanography |
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Oceanography Timmermans, B Patricola, C Wehner, M Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios |
topic_facet |
Oceanography |
description |
Ocean wave climate is an important area of research, particularly in the context of extremes driven by tropical cyclones (TC). We can now simulate global climate at resolutions sufficient to resolve TCs and for durations long enough to explore climatological changes. Both the devastating 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season and growing evidence for the connection between TC activity and increasing ocean temperature motivate investigation of possible future changes. We present two simulated 50-year global wave climate data sets under possible future warming scenarios characterized by +1.5°C and +2.0°C stabilized global mean temperatures that capture the effects of TCs. Differences in extreme wave climate between these possible scenarios and present-day conditions appear to be significant in many areas, particularly those affected by TCs. However, for computational feasibility, simulations of this kind rely on fixed sea surface temperatures, so we also investigate and elucidate effects from the lack of a dynamic ocean by simulating waves from a number of recent hurricanes and comparing output to observations. We conclude that atmosphere-only forcing is likely to result in an overestimate of extreme wind speeds and wave heights in TC-affected regions. More ensemble studies are needed to help elucidate detailed processes relevant to extreme wave climate, and important community projects such as the Coordinated Wave Climate Intercomparison Project (COWCLIP) should be supported. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Timmermans, B Patricola, C Wehner, M |
author_facet |
Timmermans, B Patricola, C Wehner, M |
author_sort |
Timmermans, B |
title |
Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios |
title_short |
Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios |
title_full |
Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios |
title_sort |
simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios |
publisher |
eScholarship, University of California |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/055009bx |
op_coverage |
88 - 99 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Oceanography, vol 31, iss 2 Special Issue |
op_relation |
qt055009bx https://escholarship.org/uc/item/055009bx |
op_rights |
public |
_version_ |
1766133015338024960 |