Inferring tipping points for ice flow in Antarctica from numerical simulations
The Antarctic ice cap is the largest ice mass on Earth. This cap is subject to instabilities generated by ongoing climate change. This thesis is part of the European H2020 project TiPACCs (Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components). The overall objective is to assess the likelihood of large and...
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2023
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:tel-04074261v2 2023-12-17T10:22:12+01:00 Inferring tipping points for ice flow in Antarctica from numerical simulations Inférence des points de basculement pour l'écoulement de la glace en Antarctique à partir de simulations numériques Urruty, Benoît Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Université Grenoble Alpes 2020-. Olivier Gagliardini 2023-01-12 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261v2/document https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261v2/file/URRUTY_2023_archivage.pdf fr fre HAL CCSD NNT: 2023GRALI004 tel-04074261 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261v2/document https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261v2/file/URRUTY_2023_archivage.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261 Mécanique des fluides [physics.class-ph]. Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-.], 2023. Français. ⟨NNT : 2023GRALI004⟩ Modelling Antarctica Flow Ecoulement Modélisation Antarctique [PHYS.MECA.MEFL]Physics [physics]/Mechanics [physics]/Fluid mechanics [physics.class-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Theses 2023 ftccsdartic 2023-11-18T23:48:26Z The Antarctic ice cap is the largest ice mass on Earth. This cap is subject to instabilities generated by ongoing climate change. This thesis is part of the European H2020 project TiPACCs (Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components). The overall objective is to assess the likelihood of large and abrupt changes in the near-future of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level, caused by Antarctic ice sheet tipping points. We need to determine the stability regime of the Antarctic ice sheet anchor lines and the existence of tipping points. We address the question of whether Antarctic grounding lines are currently undergoing irreversible retreat through instabilities such as MISI. Theoretical and numerical work has firmly established that marine-type ice sheet grounding lines can enter irreversible advance and retreat phases driven by marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Examples of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet.To this end, we are conducting a systematic analysis of the numerical stability of all Antarctic cap grounding lines in their present position using the Elmer/Ice ice flow model. Before perturbation experiments can be performed, an appropriate reference state is obtained in continuation of the recent model intercomparison experiment focused on ice sheet initialization for the Antarctic ice sheet, InitMIP-Antarctica (Seroussi, 2019). The inversion initialization methodology is used to ensure that the model reproduces the current surface flux for current ice thicknesses. In a second step, a study based on perturbation experiments is conducted to identify the stability regime of the Antarctic cap grounding lines in their current configurations. Stability is tested by applying a small but numerically significant melt disturbance below the floating platforms. We systematically show that ice sheet states can be obtained from grounding lines, ice geometry, and ice flow in close agreement with observations for ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Antarctique* Ice cap Ice Sheet Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Antarctic Misi ENVELOPE(26.683,26.683,66.617,66.617) The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
French |
topic |
Modelling Antarctica Flow Ecoulement Modélisation Antarctique [PHYS.MECA.MEFL]Physics [physics]/Mechanics [physics]/Fluid mechanics [physics.class-ph] |
spellingShingle |
Modelling Antarctica Flow Ecoulement Modélisation Antarctique [PHYS.MECA.MEFL]Physics [physics]/Mechanics [physics]/Fluid mechanics [physics.class-ph] Urruty, Benoît Inferring tipping points for ice flow in Antarctica from numerical simulations |
topic_facet |
Modelling Antarctica Flow Ecoulement Modélisation Antarctique [PHYS.MECA.MEFL]Physics [physics]/Mechanics [physics]/Fluid mechanics [physics.class-ph] |
description |
The Antarctic ice cap is the largest ice mass on Earth. This cap is subject to instabilities generated by ongoing climate change. This thesis is part of the European H2020 project TiPACCs (Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components). The overall objective is to assess the likelihood of large and abrupt changes in the near-future of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level, caused by Antarctic ice sheet tipping points. We need to determine the stability regime of the Antarctic ice sheet anchor lines and the existence of tipping points. We address the question of whether Antarctic grounding lines are currently undergoing irreversible retreat through instabilities such as MISI. Theoretical and numerical work has firmly established that marine-type ice sheet grounding lines can enter irreversible advance and retreat phases driven by marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Examples of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet.To this end, we are conducting a systematic analysis of the numerical stability of all Antarctic cap grounding lines in their present position using the Elmer/Ice ice flow model. Before perturbation experiments can be performed, an appropriate reference state is obtained in continuation of the recent model intercomparison experiment focused on ice sheet initialization for the Antarctic ice sheet, InitMIP-Antarctica (Seroussi, 2019). The inversion initialization methodology is used to ensure that the model reproduces the current surface flux for current ice thicknesses. In a second step, a study based on perturbation experiments is conducted to identify the stability regime of the Antarctic cap grounding lines in their current configurations. Stability is tested by applying a small but numerically significant melt disturbance below the floating platforms. We systematically show that ice sheet states can be obtained from grounding lines, ice geometry, and ice flow in close agreement with observations for ... |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Université Grenoble Alpes 2020-. Olivier Gagliardini |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Urruty, Benoît |
author_facet |
Urruty, Benoît |
author_sort |
Urruty, Benoît |
title |
Inferring tipping points for ice flow in Antarctica from numerical simulations |
title_short |
Inferring tipping points for ice flow in Antarctica from numerical simulations |
title_full |
Inferring tipping points for ice flow in Antarctica from numerical simulations |
title_fullStr |
Inferring tipping points for ice flow in Antarctica from numerical simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Inferring tipping points for ice flow in Antarctica from numerical simulations |
title_sort |
inferring tipping points for ice flow in antarctica from numerical simulations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261v2/document https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261v2/file/URRUTY_2023_archivage.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(26.683,26.683,66.617,66.617) |
geographic |
Antarctic Misi The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Misi The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Antarctique* Ice cap Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Antarctique* Ice cap Ice Sheet |
op_source |
https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261 Mécanique des fluides [physics.class-ph]. Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-.], 2023. Français. ⟨NNT : 2023GRALI004⟩ |
op_relation |
NNT: 2023GRALI004 tel-04074261 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261v2/document https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/tel-04074261v2/file/URRUTY_2023_archivage.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1785544732478275584 |