Contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (Austre Lovén glacier, Spitsberg)
Since the middle of the 19th century, the Earth has experienced a climate shift marked by a high rise in temperature (+ 0.85 °C over the period 1880-2012). The Arctic is the region of the world that is warming the most rapidly, at a rate of 2 to 3 times faster than the global average. In this contex...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:tel-03719460v1 2024-01-14T10:03:27+01:00 Contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (Austre Lovén glacier, Spitsberg) Apports de la modélisation statistique pour la compréhension des dynamiques nivo-glaciologiques d’un petit bassin glaciaire arctique (glacier Austre Lovén, Spitsberg) Schiavone, Sophie Théoriser et modéliser pour aménager (UMR 6049) (ThéMA) Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC) Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC) Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté Daniel Joly Florian Tolle 2021-06-28 https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460 https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460/file/these_A_SCHIAVONE_Sophie_2021.pdf fr fre HAL CCSD NNT: 2021UBFCC039 tel-03719460 https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460 https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460/file/these_A_SCHIAVONE_Sophie_2021.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460 Géographie. Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2021. Français. ⟨NNT : 2021UBFCC039⟩ Hillsides Arctic Statistical modelling Physical geography Glacier Versants Arctique Modélisation statistique Svalbard Géographie physique [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Theses 2021 ftccsdartic 2023-12-17T00:15:28Z Since the middle of the 19th century, the Earth has experienced a climate shift marked by a high rise in temperature (+ 0.85 °C over the period 1880-2012). The Arctic is the region of the world that is warming the most rapidly, at a rate of 2 to 3 times faster than the global average. In this context, all components of the Arctic cryosphere are experiencing a change in their dynamics. Because of their direct links with the atmosphere, glaciers are among the best indicators of these climate variations. Like other glaciers on the globe, the glaciers of Svalbard, which cover 60% of the archipelago’s surface, have been retreating since the end of the Little Ice Age. This retreat, which is reflected in negative glacier mass balance measurements, accelerated from the 1980s onwards.In this thesis, we aim to improve the accuracy and reliability of past and future projections of Arctic ice basin flows by also understanding their origin. Based on data acquired for more than a decade on the Austre Lovén observatory glacier in Spitsbergen (78°N°), we first sought to identify the nivo-meteorological factors influencing the annual mass balance of this glacier (2008-2017). After applying a rigorous protocol for processing the data acquired in situ, we used explanatory statistical modeling to highlight not the role of a systematically preponderant factor but rather the influence of a combination of nivo-meteorological factors in explaining the mass balances of the Austre Lovénbreen. Although winter snow cover plays a major role, its influence is partly conditioned by temperature and precipitation factors. Moreover, considering the surface of the catchment area occupied by the hillsides (34%), this thesis work allows to evaluate their contribution to the hydro-glaciological balance measured at the outlet. Thanks to very high resolution measurements by terrestrial LiDAR, the depth of the snow cover was measured on a representative sample of hillsides (2013 and 2014). Statistical modeling has also allowed us to highlight the role ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis arctic cryosphere Arctic Arctique* glacier Spitsberg Svalbard Spitsbergen Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic Svalbard |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
French |
topic |
Hillsides Arctic Statistical modelling Physical geography Glacier Versants Arctique Modélisation statistique Svalbard Géographie physique [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography |
spellingShingle |
Hillsides Arctic Statistical modelling Physical geography Glacier Versants Arctique Modélisation statistique Svalbard Géographie physique [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography Schiavone, Sophie Contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (Austre Lovén glacier, Spitsberg) |
topic_facet |
Hillsides Arctic Statistical modelling Physical geography Glacier Versants Arctique Modélisation statistique Svalbard Géographie physique [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography |
description |
Since the middle of the 19th century, the Earth has experienced a climate shift marked by a high rise in temperature (+ 0.85 °C over the period 1880-2012). The Arctic is the region of the world that is warming the most rapidly, at a rate of 2 to 3 times faster than the global average. In this context, all components of the Arctic cryosphere are experiencing a change in their dynamics. Because of their direct links with the atmosphere, glaciers are among the best indicators of these climate variations. Like other glaciers on the globe, the glaciers of Svalbard, which cover 60% of the archipelago’s surface, have been retreating since the end of the Little Ice Age. This retreat, which is reflected in negative glacier mass balance measurements, accelerated from the 1980s onwards.In this thesis, we aim to improve the accuracy and reliability of past and future projections of Arctic ice basin flows by also understanding their origin. Based on data acquired for more than a decade on the Austre Lovén observatory glacier in Spitsbergen (78°N°), we first sought to identify the nivo-meteorological factors influencing the annual mass balance of this glacier (2008-2017). After applying a rigorous protocol for processing the data acquired in situ, we used explanatory statistical modeling to highlight not the role of a systematically preponderant factor but rather the influence of a combination of nivo-meteorological factors in explaining the mass balances of the Austre Lovénbreen. Although winter snow cover plays a major role, its influence is partly conditioned by temperature and precipitation factors. Moreover, considering the surface of the catchment area occupied by the hillsides (34%), this thesis work allows to evaluate their contribution to the hydro-glaciological balance measured at the outlet. Thanks to very high resolution measurements by terrestrial LiDAR, the depth of the snow cover was measured on a representative sample of hillsides (2013 and 2014). Statistical modeling has also allowed us to highlight the role ... |
author2 |
Théoriser et modéliser pour aménager (UMR 6049) (ThéMA) Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC) Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC) Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté Daniel Joly Florian Tolle |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Schiavone, Sophie |
author_facet |
Schiavone, Sophie |
author_sort |
Schiavone, Sophie |
title |
Contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (Austre Lovén glacier, Spitsberg) |
title_short |
Contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (Austre Lovén glacier, Spitsberg) |
title_full |
Contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (Austre Lovén glacier, Spitsberg) |
title_fullStr |
Contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (Austre Lovén glacier, Spitsberg) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (Austre Lovén glacier, Spitsberg) |
title_sort |
contributions of statistical modelling for the understanding of the nivo-glaciological dynamics of a small arctic glacial basin (austre lovén glacier, spitsberg) |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460 https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460/file/these_A_SCHIAVONE_Sophie_2021.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
arctic cryosphere Arctic Arctique* glacier Spitsberg Svalbard Spitsbergen |
genre_facet |
arctic cryosphere Arctic Arctique* glacier Spitsberg Svalbard Spitsbergen |
op_source |
https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460 Géographie. Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2021. Français. ⟨NNT : 2021UBFCC039⟩ |
op_relation |
NNT: 2021UBFCC039 tel-03719460 https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460 https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-03719460/file/these_A_SCHIAVONE_Sophie_2021.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1788058239406964736 |