Extratropical transition of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the Mediterranean
The extratropical transition is the transformation of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone during its migration towards the midlatitudes. During its interaction with its new baroclinic environment, the cyclone can reintensify through complex dynamical and diabatic processes. It can also...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
Language: | French |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2012
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/document https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/file/Manuscrit_FlorianPantillon.pdf |
id |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:tel-00755220v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
French |
topic |
tropical cyclone Rossby wave Medicane diabatic processes numerical modeling mesoscale high-performance computing cyclone tropical onde de Rossby méditerragan processus diabatiques modélisation numérique méso-échelle calcul de haute performance Méso-NH [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
spellingShingle |
tropical cyclone Rossby wave Medicane diabatic processes numerical modeling mesoscale high-performance computing cyclone tropical onde de Rossby méditerragan processus diabatiques modélisation numérique méso-échelle calcul de haute performance Méso-NH [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] Pantillon, Florian Extratropical transition of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the Mediterranean |
topic_facet |
tropical cyclone Rossby wave Medicane diabatic processes numerical modeling mesoscale high-performance computing cyclone tropical onde de Rossby méditerragan processus diabatiques modélisation numérique méso-échelle calcul de haute performance Méso-NH [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
description |
The extratropical transition is the transformation of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone during its migration towards the midlatitudes. During its interaction with its new baroclinic environment, the cyclone can reintensify through complex dynamical and diabatic processes. It can also have a impact downstream from the strenghtening of a Rossby wave train, which quickly propagates and of which the breaking is often the trigger of extreme weather events. The complexity of dynamical and diabatic processes lead then to a reduction of the downstream predictability. Hurricanes Florence and Helene over the North Atlantic contributed that way to the triggering of extreme weather events in September 2006 in the Mediterranean, respectively, an intense precipitation event and a rarer phenomenon, a Medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). Helene was distinguished from Florence by its predominant diabatic processes during the reintensification over a warmer ocean, from which it maintained tropical characteristics. Helene was an exceptional case from its three reintensifications in three days, induced by the elongation of three filaments of potential vorticity, in addition to the development of the Medicane downstream. Both extreme weather events in the Mediterranean were missed from the midrange deterministic forecast. As diabatic processes control the impact of the hurricanes on the Rossby wave trains, the uncertainty in their description was investigated. For the first time, numerical simulations were performed with the Meso-NH model over a large domain with an explicit resolution of deep convection, taking advantage of the massive parallel computing capabilities of the model. A weak sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the model was found in the precipitation of the hurricanes, thus in their impact on the Rossby wave trains and in the extreme weather events in the Mediterranean. The track of Helene showed instead a high sensitivity to its phasing with the Rossby wave train, that was influenced by the ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire d'aérologie (LAERO) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Christine Lac et Patrick Mascart |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Pantillon, Florian |
author_facet |
Pantillon, Florian |
author_sort |
Pantillon, Florian |
title |
Extratropical transition of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the Mediterranean |
title_short |
Extratropical transition of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the Mediterranean |
title_full |
Extratropical transition of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the Mediterranean |
title_fullStr |
Extratropical transition of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the Mediterranean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extratropical transition of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the Mediterranean |
title_sort |
extratropical transition of hurricanes in the north atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the mediterranean |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/document https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/file/Manuscrit_FlorianPantillon.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220 Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique [physics.ao-ph]. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2012. Français |
op_relation |
tel-00755220 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/document https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/file/Manuscrit_FlorianPantillon.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766131289759416320 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:tel-00755220v1 2023-05-15T17:32:57+02:00 Extratropical transition of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and impact on the predictability of extreme events in the Mediterranean Transition extra-tropicale d'ouragans en Atlantique Nord et impact sur la prévisibilité d'événements extrêmes en Méditerranée Pantillon, Florian Laboratoire d'aérologie (LAERO) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Christine Lac et Patrick Mascart 2012-09-24 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/document https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/file/Manuscrit_FlorianPantillon.pdf fr fre HAL CCSD tel-00755220 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/document https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220/file/Manuscrit_FlorianPantillon.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00755220 Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique [physics.ao-ph]. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2012. Français tropical cyclone Rossby wave Medicane diabatic processes numerical modeling mesoscale high-performance computing cyclone tropical onde de Rossby méditerragan processus diabatiques modélisation numérique méso-échelle calcul de haute performance Méso-NH [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Theses 2012 ftccsdartic 2021-12-12T05:38:06Z The extratropical transition is the transformation of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone during its migration towards the midlatitudes. During its interaction with its new baroclinic environment, the cyclone can reintensify through complex dynamical and diabatic processes. It can also have a impact downstream from the strenghtening of a Rossby wave train, which quickly propagates and of which the breaking is often the trigger of extreme weather events. The complexity of dynamical and diabatic processes lead then to a reduction of the downstream predictability. Hurricanes Florence and Helene over the North Atlantic contributed that way to the triggering of extreme weather events in September 2006 in the Mediterranean, respectively, an intense precipitation event and a rarer phenomenon, a Medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). Helene was distinguished from Florence by its predominant diabatic processes during the reintensification over a warmer ocean, from which it maintained tropical characteristics. Helene was an exceptional case from its three reintensifications in three days, induced by the elongation of three filaments of potential vorticity, in addition to the development of the Medicane downstream. Both extreme weather events in the Mediterranean were missed from the midrange deterministic forecast. As diabatic processes control the impact of the hurricanes on the Rossby wave trains, the uncertainty in their description was investigated. For the first time, numerical simulations were performed with the Meso-NH model over a large domain with an explicit resolution of deep convection, taking advantage of the massive parallel computing capabilities of the model. A weak sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the model was found in the precipitation of the hurricanes, thus in their impact on the Rossby wave trains and in the extreme weather events in the Mediterranean. The track of Helene showed instead a high sensitivity to its phasing with the Rossby wave train, that was influenced by the ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |