Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations

• Published in: ARCTIC
• Main Authors: Martineau, Chloé, Langlois, Alexandre, Gouttevin, Isabelle, Neave, Erin, Johnson, Cheryl
• Other Authors: Département de géomatique appliquée Sherbrooke (UdeS), Université de Sherbrooke (UdeS), Centre d'Etudes Nordiques (CEN), Université Laval Québec (ULaval), Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (CEN), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Météo-France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Organisation Mondiale de la Santé / World Health Organization Office (OMS / WHO), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2022
• Subjects: [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Ecosystems; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; Arctic; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Canadian Arctic Archipelago; Peary; Antarc*; Arctic Archipelago; Rangifer tarandus
• Online Access: https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133; https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/document; https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/file/Martineau_2022.pdf; https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic74868

International audience The Arctic has warmed at twice the global average over recent decades, which has led to a reduction in the spatial extent and mass balance of snow. The increase in occurrence of winter extreme events such as rain-on-snow, blizzards, and heat waves has a significant impact on snow thickness and density. Dense snowpack conditions can decrease or completely prevent foraging by Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) by creating “locked pastures,” a situation where forage is present but not accessible under snow or ice. Prolonged and severe weather events have been linked to poor body condition, malnutrition, high adult mortality, calf losses, and major population die-offs in Peary caribou. Previous work has established the link between declines in Peary caribou numbers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and snow conditions, however these efforts have been limited by the quality and resolution of data describing snow physical properties in the Arctic. Here, we 1) investigate whether a snow model adapted for the Antarctic (SNOWPACK) can produce snow simulations relevant to Canadian High Arctic conditions, and 2) test snow model outputs to determine their utility in predicting Peary caribou occurrence with MaxEnt modelling software. We model Peary caribou occurrence across three seasons: July – October (summer forage and rut), November – March (fall movement and winter forage), and April – June (spring movement and calving). Results of snow simulations using the Antarctic SNOWPACK model demonstrated that both top and bottom density values were greatly improved when compared to simulations using the original version developed for alpine conditions. Results were also more consistent with field measurements using the Antarctic model, though it underestimated the top layer density compared to on-site measurements. Modelled outputs including snow depth and CT350 (cumulative thickness of snow layers surpassing the critical density value of 350 kg·m-3; a density threshold relevant to caribou) proved ...