A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives
International audience Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can seve...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/file/cp-13-1169-2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:insu-03727053v1 2023-08-20T04:06:57+02:00 A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha Ghil, Michael Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) 2017 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/file/cp-13-1169-2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 insu-03727053 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/file/cp-13-1169-2017.pdf BIBCODE: 2017CliPa.13.1169B doi:10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053 Climate of the Past, 2017, 13, pp.1169-1180. ⟨10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 2023-07-29T22:51:35Z International audience Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Greenland Climate of the Past 13 9 1169 1180 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha Ghil, Michael A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha Ghil, Michael |
author_facet |
Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha Ghil, Michael |
author_sort |
Boers, Niklas |
title |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_short |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_full |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_fullStr |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_full_unstemmed |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_sort |
complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/file/cp-13-1169-2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
op_source |
ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053 Climate of the Past, 2017, 13, pp.1169-1180. ⟨10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 insu-03727053 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727053/file/cp-13-1169-2017.pdf BIBCODE: 2017CliPa.13.1169B doi:10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
1169 |
op_container_end_page |
1180 |
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1774718324394950656 |