Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model
International audience Over the next century, the Arctic is projected to become seasonally sea ice-free. Assessing feedback between clouds and sea ice as the Arctic loses sea ice cover is important because of clouds' radiative impacts on the Arctic surface. Here we investigate present-day and f...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2019
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Online Access: | https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202018%20-%20Morrison%20-%20Cloud%20Response%20to%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss%20and%20Implications%20for%20Future%20Feedback%20in%20the%20CESM1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029142 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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English |
topic |
clouds climate change Arctic sea ice climate models climate feedback [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
clouds climate change Arctic sea ice climate models climate feedback [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Morrison, A. L. Kay, J. E. Frey, W. R. Chepfer, H. Guzman, R. Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model |
topic_facet |
clouds climate change Arctic sea ice climate models climate feedback [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience Over the next century, the Arctic is projected to become seasonally sea ice-free. Assessing feedback between clouds and sea ice as the Arctic loses sea ice cover is important because of clouds' radiative impacts on the Arctic surface. Here we investigate present-day and future Arctic cloud-sea ice relationships in a fully coupled global climate model forced by business-as-usual increases in greenhouse gases. Model evaluation using a lidar simulator and lidar satellite observations shows agreement between present-day modeled and observed cloud-sea ice relationships. Summer clouds are unaffected by sea ice variability, but more fall clouds occur over open water than over sea ice. Because the model reproduces observed cloud-sea ice relationships and their underlying physical mechanisms, the model is used to assess future Arctic cloud-sea ice feedback. With future sea ice loss, modeled summer cloud fraction, vertical structure, and optical depth barely change. Future sea ice loss does not influence summer clouds, but summer sea ice loss does drive fall cloud changes by increasing the amount of sunlight absorbed by the summertime ocean and the latent and sensible heat released into the atmosphere when the Sun sets in fall. The future fall boundary layer deepens and clouds become more opaque over newly open water. The future nonsummer longwave cloud radiative effect strengthens as nonsummer cloud cover increases. In summary, we find no evidence for a summer cloud-sea ice feedback but strong evidence for a positive cloud-sea ice feedback that emerges during nonsummer months as the Arctic warms and sea ice disappears. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Morrison, A. L. Kay, J. E. Frey, W. R. Chepfer, H. Guzman, R. |
author_facet |
Morrison, A. L. Kay, J. E. Frey, W. R. Chepfer, H. Guzman, R. |
author_sort |
Morrison, A. L. |
title |
Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model |
title_short |
Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model |
title_full |
Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model |
title_fullStr |
Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model |
title_sort |
cloud response to arctic sea ice loss and implications for future feedback in the cesm1 climate model |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202018%20-%20Morrison%20-%20Cloud%20Response%20to%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss%20and%20Implications%20for%20Future%20Feedback%20in%20the%20CESM1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029142 |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019, 124, pp.1003-1020. ⟨10.1029/2018JD029142⟩ |
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op_rights |
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029142 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
124 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1003 |
op_container_end_page |
1020 |
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spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:insu-03727029v1 2023-11-05T03:38:20+01:00 Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model Morrison, A. L. Kay, J. E. Frey, W. R. Chepfer, H. Guzman, R. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) 2019 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202018%20-%20Morrison%20-%20Cloud%20Response%20to%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss%20and%20Implications%20for%20Future%20Feedback%20in%20the%20CESM1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029142 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2018JD029142 insu-03727029 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202018%20-%20Morrison%20-%20Cloud%20Response%20to%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss%20and%20Implications%20for%20Future%20Feedback%20in%20the%20CESM1.pdf BIBCODE: 2019JGRD.124.1003M doi:10.1029/2018JD029142 http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://insu.hal.science/insu-03727029 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019, 124, pp.1003-1020. ⟨10.1029/2018JD029142⟩ clouds climate change Arctic sea ice climate models climate feedback [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029142 2023-10-07T22:59:43Z International audience Over the next century, the Arctic is projected to become seasonally sea ice-free. Assessing feedback between clouds and sea ice as the Arctic loses sea ice cover is important because of clouds' radiative impacts on the Arctic surface. Here we investigate present-day and future Arctic cloud-sea ice relationships in a fully coupled global climate model forced by business-as-usual increases in greenhouse gases. Model evaluation using a lidar simulator and lidar satellite observations shows agreement between present-day modeled and observed cloud-sea ice relationships. Summer clouds are unaffected by sea ice variability, but more fall clouds occur over open water than over sea ice. Because the model reproduces observed cloud-sea ice relationships and their underlying physical mechanisms, the model is used to assess future Arctic cloud-sea ice feedback. With future sea ice loss, modeled summer cloud fraction, vertical structure, and optical depth barely change. Future sea ice loss does not influence summer clouds, but summer sea ice loss does drive fall cloud changes by increasing the amount of sunlight absorbed by the summertime ocean and the latent and sensible heat released into the atmosphere when the Sun sets in fall. The future fall boundary layer deepens and clouds become more opaque over newly open water. The future nonsummer longwave cloud radiative effect strengthens as nonsummer cloud cover increases. In summary, we find no evidence for a summer cloud-sea ice feedback but strong evidence for a positive cloud-sea ice feedback that emerges during nonsummer months as the Arctic warms and sea ice disappears. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124 2 1003 1020 |