A Solar Signature in Many Climate Indices
International audience We first apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to the international sunspot number (1849-2015) and the count of polar faculae (1906-2006). The SSA method finds 22-, 11-, and 5.5-year components as the first eigenvectors of these solar activity proxies. We next apply SSA to th...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202019%20-%20Le%20Mou%20l%20-%20A%20Solar%20Signature%20in%20Many%20Climate%20Indices.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028939 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:insu-03586654v1 2023-06-11T04:09:42+02:00 A Solar Signature in Many Climate Indices Le Mouël, Jean-Louis Lopes, Fernand Courtillot, Vincent Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2019 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202019%20-%20Le%20Mou%20l%20-%20A%20Solar%20Signature%20in%20Many%20Climate%20Indices.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028939 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2018JD028939 insu-03586654 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202019%20-%20Le%20Mou%20l%20-%20A%20Solar%20Signature%20in%20Many%20Climate%20Indices.pdf BIBCODE: 2019JGRD.124.2600L doi:10.1029/2018JD028939 http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019, 124, pp.2600-2619. ⟨10.1029/2018JD028939⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028939 2023-05-06T23:54:25Z International audience We first apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to the international sunspot number (1849-2015) and the count of polar faculae (1906-2006). The SSA method finds 22-, 11-, and 5.5-year components as the first eigenvectors of these solar activity proxies. We next apply SSA to the 10 Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO; 1978-2016) indices. The first, most intense component SSA finds in all MJO indices has either a period of 5.5 or 11 years. The longer-term modulation of amplitude is on the order of one third of the total variation. The 5.5-year SSA component 1 of most MJO indices moreover follows the decreasing amplitude of solar cycles. We then apply SSA to climate indices Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index, Arctic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation, Tropical Southern Atlantic oscillation, Western Hemisphere Warm Pool, and Brazil and Sahel rainfalls. We find that the first SSA eigenvectors are all combinations of rather pure 11, 5.5, and 3.6-year pseudo-cycles. The 5.5-year component is frequently observed and is particularly important and sharp in the series in which it appears. All these periods have long been attributed to solar activity, and this by itself argues for the existence of a strong link between solar activity and climate. The mechanisms of coupling must be complex and probably nonlinear but they remain to be fully understood (UV radiation, solar wind, and galactic cosmic rays being the most promising candidates). We propose as a first step a Kuramoto model of nonlinear coupling that generates phase variations compatible with the observed ones. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic Pacific Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124 5 2600 2619 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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language |
English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
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[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Le Mouël, Jean-Louis Lopes, Fernand Courtillot, Vincent A Solar Signature in Many Climate Indices |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience We first apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to the international sunspot number (1849-2015) and the count of polar faculae (1906-2006). The SSA method finds 22-, 11-, and 5.5-year components as the first eigenvectors of these solar activity proxies. We next apply SSA to the 10 Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO; 1978-2016) indices. The first, most intense component SSA finds in all MJO indices has either a period of 5.5 or 11 years. The longer-term modulation of amplitude is on the order of one third of the total variation. The 5.5-year SSA component 1 of most MJO indices moreover follows the decreasing amplitude of solar cycles. We then apply SSA to climate indices Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index, Arctic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation, Tropical Southern Atlantic oscillation, Western Hemisphere Warm Pool, and Brazil and Sahel rainfalls. We find that the first SSA eigenvectors are all combinations of rather pure 11, 5.5, and 3.6-year pseudo-cycles. The 5.5-year component is frequently observed and is particularly important and sharp in the series in which it appears. All these periods have long been attributed to solar activity, and this by itself argues for the existence of a strong link between solar activity and climate. The mechanisms of coupling must be complex and probably nonlinear but they remain to be fully understood (UV radiation, solar wind, and galactic cosmic rays being the most promising candidates). We propose as a first step a Kuramoto model of nonlinear coupling that generates phase variations compatible with the observed ones. |
author2 |
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Le Mouël, Jean-Louis Lopes, Fernand Courtillot, Vincent |
author_facet |
Le Mouël, Jean-Louis Lopes, Fernand Courtillot, Vincent |
author_sort |
Le Mouël, Jean-Louis |
title |
A Solar Signature in Many Climate Indices |
title_short |
A Solar Signature in Many Climate Indices |
title_full |
A Solar Signature in Many Climate Indices |
title_fullStr |
A Solar Signature in Many Climate Indices |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Solar Signature in Many Climate Indices |
title_sort |
solar signature in many climate indices |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202019%20-%20Le%20Mou%20l%20-%20A%20Solar%20Signature%20in%20Many%20Climate%20Indices.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028939 |
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Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019, 124, pp.2600-2619. ⟨10.1029/2018JD028939⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2018JD028939 insu-03586654 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03586654/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202019%20-%20Le%20Mou%20l%20-%20A%20Solar%20Signature%20in%20Many%20Climate%20Indices.pdf BIBCODE: 2019JGRD.124.2600L doi:10.1029/2018JD028939 |
op_rights |
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028939 |
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Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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124 |
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2600 |
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2619 |
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