Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations
International audience We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, in...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2018
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481/file/acp-18-8409-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018 |
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[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
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[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Dhomse, Sandip Kinnison, Douglas Chipperfield, Martyn P. Cionni, Irene Hegglin, Michaela Abraham, N. Luke Akiyoshi, Hideharu Archibald, Alex T. Bednarz, Ewa M. Bekki, Slimane Braesicke, Peter Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Frith, Stacy Hardiman, Steven C. Hassler, Birgit Horowitz, Larry W. Hu, Rong-Ming Jöckel, Patrick Josse, Béatrice Kirner, Oliver Kremser, Stefanie Langematz, Ulrike Lewis, Jared Marchand, Marion Lin, Meiyun Mancini, Eva Marecal, Virginie Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke Pitari, Giovanni Plummer, David A. Pyle, John A. Revell, Laura E. Rozanov, Eugene Schofield, Robyn Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Sudo, Kengo Tilmes, Simone Visioni, Daniele Yamashita, Yousuke Zeng, Guang Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (with a 1-σ uncertainty of 2042–2052). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2046 (2042–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2034 (2024–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2062 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2035 (2025–2040) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the NH reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–15 years, depending on the region. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return to 1980 values, at around 2040, while the other half do not reach this value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine, which is the main driver of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which ... |
author2 |
School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE) University of Leeds National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA) Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR) Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK University of Cambridge UK (CAM) National Centre for Atmospheric Science Leeds (NCAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) STRATO - LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Spurengase und Fernerkundung (IMK-ASF) Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA) Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR) Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Steinbuch Centre for Computing Karlsruhe (SCC) Institut für Meteorologie Berlin Freie Universität Berlin Bodeker Scientific Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program Princeton (AOS Program) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences L'Aquila (DSFC) Università degli Studi dell'Aquila (UNIVAQ) Centre of Excellence CETEMPS National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder (NIWA) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada Centre for Atmospheric Science Cambridge, UK Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science University of New South Wales Sydney (UNSW)-Australian Research Council Canberra (ARC) School of Earth Sciences Melbourne Faculty of Science Melbourne University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dhomse, Sandip Kinnison, Douglas Chipperfield, Martyn P. Cionni, Irene Hegglin, Michaela Abraham, N. Luke Akiyoshi, Hideharu Archibald, Alex T. Bednarz, Ewa M. Bekki, Slimane Braesicke, Peter Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Frith, Stacy Hardiman, Steven C. Hassler, Birgit Horowitz, Larry W. Hu, Rong-Ming Jöckel, Patrick Josse, Béatrice Kirner, Oliver Kremser, Stefanie Langematz, Ulrike Lewis, Jared Marchand, Marion Lin, Meiyun Mancini, Eva Marecal, Virginie Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke Pitari, Giovanni Plummer, David A. Pyle, John A. Revell, Laura E. Rozanov, Eugene Schofield, Robyn Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Sudo, Kengo Tilmes, Simone Visioni, Daniele Yamashita, Yousuke Zeng, Guang |
author_facet |
Dhomse, Sandip Kinnison, Douglas Chipperfield, Martyn P. Cionni, Irene Hegglin, Michaela Abraham, N. Luke Akiyoshi, Hideharu Archibald, Alex T. Bednarz, Ewa M. Bekki, Slimane Braesicke, Peter Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Frith, Stacy Hardiman, Steven C. Hassler, Birgit Horowitz, Larry W. Hu, Rong-Ming Jöckel, Patrick Josse, Béatrice Kirner, Oliver Kremser, Stefanie Langematz, Ulrike Lewis, Jared Marchand, Marion Lin, Meiyun Mancini, Eva Marecal, Virginie Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke Pitari, Giovanni Plummer, David A. Pyle, John A. Revell, Laura E. Rozanov, Eugene Schofield, Robyn Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Sudo, Kengo Tilmes, Simone Visioni, Daniele Yamashita, Yousuke Zeng, Guang |
author_sort |
Dhomse, Sandip |
title |
Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations |
title_short |
Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations |
title_full |
Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations |
title_fullStr |
Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations |
title_sort |
estimates of ozone return dates from chemistry-climate model initiative simulations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481/file/acp-18-8409-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
ISSN: 1680-7316 EISSN: 1680-7324 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, European Geosciences Union, 2018, 18 (11), pp.8409-8438. ⟨10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018⟩ |
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https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018 |
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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:insu-01702481v1 2023-05-15T13:57:09+02:00 Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations Dhomse, Sandip Kinnison, Douglas Chipperfield, Martyn P. Cionni, Irene Hegglin, Michaela Abraham, N. Luke Akiyoshi, Hideharu Archibald, Alex T. Bednarz, Ewa M. Bekki, Slimane Braesicke, Peter Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Frith, Stacy Hardiman, Steven C. Hassler, Birgit Horowitz, Larry W. Hu, Rong-Ming Jöckel, Patrick Josse, Béatrice Kirner, Oliver Kremser, Stefanie Langematz, Ulrike Lewis, Jared Marchand, Marion Lin, Meiyun Mancini, Eva Marecal, Virginie Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke Pitari, Giovanni Plummer, David A. Pyle, John A. Revell, Laura E. Rozanov, Eugene Schofield, Robyn Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Sudo, Kengo Tilmes, Simone Visioni, Daniele Yamashita, Yousuke Zeng, Guang School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE) University of Leeds National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA) Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR) Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK University of Cambridge UK (CAM) National Centre for Atmospheric Science Leeds (NCAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) STRATO - LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Spurengase und Fernerkundung (IMK-ASF) Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA) Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR) Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Steinbuch Centre for Computing Karlsruhe (SCC) Institut für Meteorologie Berlin Freie Universität Berlin Bodeker Scientific Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program Princeton (AOS Program) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences L'Aquila (DSFC) Università degli Studi dell'Aquila (UNIVAQ) Centre of Excellence CETEMPS National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder (NIWA) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada Centre for Atmospheric Science Cambridge, UK Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science University of New South Wales Sydney (UNSW)-Australian Research Council Canberra (ARC) School of Earth Sciences Melbourne Faculty of Science Melbourne University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya 2018 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481/file/acp-18-8409-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018 insu-01702481 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481/file/acp-18-8409-2018.pdf doi:10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1680-7316 EISSN: 1680-7324 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01702481 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, European Geosciences Union, 2018, 18 (11), pp.8409-8438. ⟨10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018 2021-12-05T00:55:36Z International audience We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (with a 1-σ uncertainty of 2042–2052). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2046 (2042–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2034 (2024–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2062 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2035 (2025–2040) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the NH reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–15 years, depending on the region. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return to 1980 values, at around 2040, while the other half do not reach this value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine, which is the main driver of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18 11 8409 8438 |